Evaluation of Norges Bank’s forecasts for 2018 and 2019

dc.date.accessioned	2024-02-13T10:17:23Z
dc.date.available	2024-02-13T10:17:23Z
dc.date.issued	2021
dc.identifier.isbn	9788283791884
dc.identifier.issn	1894-0293
dc.identifier.uri	https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3117221
dc.description	Norges Bank’s economic forecasts for the Norwegian economy for 2018 and 2019 were close to the mark and the forecast errors were mostly smaller than for the preceding 20 years. The evaluation for 2018 and 2019 indicates that the forecasting system captured the main features of economic developments. The forecast errors from simple models were also smaller than normal. For some of the variables, there has been a tendency of systematic forecast errors over time. If we look at the period after the oil price collapse in 2014, wage growth, productivity and the exchange rate have shown weaker-than-expected developments. Overall, it would appear that we underestimated the decline in the ability to pay wages in Norway.	en_US
dc.language.iso	eng	en_US
dc.publisher	Norges Bank	en_US
dc.relation.ispartofseries	Norges Bank Papers;5/2020
dc.rights	Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internasjonal	*
dc.rights.uri	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.no	*
dc.title	Evaluation of Norges Bank’s forecasts for 2018 and 2019	en_US
dc.type	Report	en_US
dc.description.version	publishedVersion	en_US
dc.subject.nsi	VDP::Samfunnsvitenskap: 200::Økonomi: 210::Samfunnsøkonomi: 212	en_US
dc.source.pagenumber	21	en_US

Med mindre annet er angitt, så er denne innførselen lisensiert som Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internasjonal