Browsing Norges Banks vitenarkiv by Author "Aastveit, Knut Are"

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    • The Price Responsiveness of Shale Producers: Evidence from Micro Data 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Gundersen, Thomas S. (Working paper;10/2022, Working paper, 2022)
      We show that shale oil producers respond positively to favourable oil price signals, and that this response is mainly associated with the timing of production decisions through well completion and refracturing, consistent ...

    • Quantifying time-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Cross, Jamie L.; van Dijk, Herman K. (Working Paper;3/2021, Working paper, 2021)
      We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil using a combination of probabilistic individual model forecasts. Our combination method extends earlier ...

    • Residential Investment and Recession Predictability 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Anundsen, André K.; Herstad, Eyo I. (Working Papers;24/2017, Working paper, 2017)
      We assess the importance of residential investment in predicting economic recessions for an unbalanced panel of 12 OECD countries over the period 1960Q1-2014Q4. Our approach is to estimate various probit models with different ...

    • Short-Term Forecasting of GDP and Inflation in Real-Time : Norges Bank’s System for Averaging Models 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Gerdrup, Karsten R.; Jore, Anne Sofie (Staff Memo;9/2011, Working paper, 2011)
      In this paper we describe Norges Bank's system for averaging models (SAM) which produces model-based density forecasts for Norwegian Mainland GDP and inflation. We combine the forecasts from three main types of models ...

    • The World Is Not Enough! Small Open Economies and Regional Dependence 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (Working Papers;16/2011, Working paper, 2011)
      This paper bridges the new open economy factor augmented VAR (FAVAR) studies with the recent findings in the business cycle synchronization literature emphasizing the importance of regional factors. That is, we estimate ...

    • What Drives Oil Prices? Emerging Versus Developed Economies 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (Working Papers;11/2012, Working paper, 2012)
      We analyze the importance of demand from emerging and developed economies as drivers of the real price of oil over the last two decades. Using a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model that allows us to ...