We evaluate forecasts of GDP growth and inflation made by the system of averaging models (SAM) and compare their performance with Norges Bank's forecasts in the Monetary Policy Report. We assess the new version of SAM, as ...

As a means to drawing up the most accurate projections possible for economic developments, Norges Bank regularly evaluates its model-based forecasts. Analyses of forecast errors may make an important contribution to improving ...

The assessments of capacity utilisation in the Norwegian economy in 2004, measured by estimates of the output gap, changed only moderately through 2003 and 2004. For the past year, Norges Bank has projected that the Norwegian ...

This article analyses Norges Bank’s projections for 1998, published in autumn 1996 and autumn 1997 respectively. Compared with earlier articles on this subject, we go one step further in the analysis by examining projections ...

In order to provide the central bank with an optimal basis for the conduct of monetary policy, the central bank must evaluate its projections for economic developments. Norges Bank has previously published analyses of its ...

Norges Bank’s projections for developments in the Norwegian and international economy form an important basis for monetary policy decisions. Norges Bank places emphasis on the importance of evaluating the projections in ...

Growth in the mainland economy in 2006 was appreciably higher than projected by Norges Bank and it is likely that the output gap was also more positive than projected. At the same time, consumer price inflation adjusted ...

Inflation in 2008 was significantly higher than Norges Bank projected in autumn 2007. This was to a large extent due to an unexpected slowdown in productivity growth and to the rise in prices for commodities and manufactured ...