• Bubbles and Crises: The Role of House Prices and Credit 

      Anundsen, André K.; Hansen, Frank; Gerdrup, Karsten R.; Kragh-Sørensen, Kasper (Working Papers;14/2014, Working paper, 2014)
      This paper exploits a quarterly panel data set for 16 OECD countries over the period 1975q1–2013q2 to explore the importance of house prices and credit in affecting the likelihood of a financial crisis. Estimating a set ...
    • Does High Debt Growth in Upturns Lead to a More Pronounced Fall in Consumption in Downturns? 

      Hansen, Frank; Torstensen, Kjersti Næss (Economic Commentaries;8/2016, Others, 2016)
      The strong accumulation of debt in the period preceding the financial crisis has resulted in a renewed focus on the relationship between debt and household demand in an economic downturn. Studies based on disaggregated ...
    • Driving Forces Behind European Commercial Real Estate Prices Prior to a Sharp Fall in Prices 

      Hagen, Marius; Hansen, Frank (Staff Memo;1/2018, Working paper, 2018)
      What factors have driven commercial real estate (CRE) prices upwards prior to a sharp fall in prices? We study this question by identifying turning points in CRE for a dataset covering the prime office segment in 58 cities ...
    • Gir høy gjeldsvekst i oppgangstider større konsumfall i nedgangstider? 

      Hansen, Frank; Torstensen, Kjersti Næss (Aktuell Kommentar;8/2016, Others, 2016)
      Den sterke oppbyggingen av gjeld i forkant av finanskrisen har gitt et fornyet fokus på sammenhengen mellom gjeld og husholdningenes etterspørsel ved tilbakeslag i økonomien. Studier på disaggregerte data finner empirisk ...
    • Leaning Against the Wind When Credit Bites Back 

      Gerdrup, Karsten R.; Hansen, Frank; Krogh, Tord; Maih, Junior (Working Papers;9/2016, Working paper, 2016)
      This paper analyzes the cost-benefit trade-off of leaning against the wind (LAW) in monetary policy. Our starting point is a New Keynesian Markov-switching model where the economy can be in a normal state or in a crisis ...
    • Macroprudential Regulation - What, Why and How? 

      Borchgrevink, Henrik; Ellingsrud, Sigmund; Hansen, Frank (Staff Memo;13/2014, Working paper, 2014)
      This paper reviews recent literature on the theoretical foundations of macroprudential regulation. We identify six categories of market failures that give rise to macroprudential concerns; pecuniary externalities, ...
    • Model Estimates of the Output Gap 

      Hagelund, Kåre; Hansen, Frank; Robstad, Ørjan (Staff Memo;4/2018, Working paper, 2018)
      This paper documents a set of models used by Norges Bank in estimating the output gap. The models take into account developments in key cyclical indicators such as GDP, unemployment, inflation, wage growth, investment, ...
    • Modellberegninger av produksjonsgapet 

      Hagelund, Kåre; Hansen, Frank; Robstad, Ørjan (Staff Memo;4/2018, Working paper, 2018)
      I denne artikkelen dokumenteres et sett av modeller som Norges Bank benytter i vurderingen av produksjonsgapet. Modellene tar hensyn til utviklingen i sentrale konjunkturindikatorer som BNP, arbeidsledighet, inflasjon, ...
    • Norges Bank Output Gap Estimates: Forecasting Properties, Reliability and Cyclical Sensitivity 

      Furlanetto, Francesco; Hagelund, Kåre; Hansen, Frank; Robstad, Ørjan (Working Paper;7/2020, Working paper, 2020)
      This paper documents the suite of models used by Norges Bank to estimate the output gap. The models are estimated using data on GDP, unemployment, inflation, wages, investment, house prices and credit. We evaluate the ...
    • Review of Flexible Inflation Targeting (ReFIT) - sluttrapport 

      Alstadheim, Ragna; Bergholt, Drago; Brubakk, Leif; Gerdrup, Karsten R.; Hagelund, Kåre; Hansen, Frank; Husabø, Eilert; Krogh, Tord; Langbraaten, Nina; Midthjell, Nina Larsson; Olsen, Øystein; Røisland, Øistein (Norges Banks Skriftserie;51, Book, 2017)