Blar i Norges Banks vitenarkiv på forfatter "Jore, Anne Sofie"

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    • Combining Forecast Densities from VARs with Uncertain Instabilities 

      Jore, Anne Sofie; Mitchell, James; Vahey, Shaun P. (Working Papers;1/2008, Working paper, 2008)
      Clark and McCracken (2008) argue that combining real-time point forecasts from VARs of output, prices and interest rates improves point forecast accuracy in the presence of uncertain model instabilities. In this paper, we ...

    • Combining VAR and DSGE Forecast Densities 

      Bache, Ida Wolden; Jore, Anne Sofie; Mitchell, James; Vahey, Shaun P. (Working Papers;23/2009, Working paper, 2009)
      A popular macroeconomic forecasting strategy takes combinations across many models to hedge against instabilities of unknown timing; see (among others) Stock and Watson (2004), Clark and McCracken (2010), and Jore et al. ...

    • Does Forecast Combination Improve Norges Bank Inflation Forecasts? 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Gerdrup, Karsten R.; Jore, Anne Sofie; Smith, Christie; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (Working Papers;1/2009, Working paper, 2009)
      We develop a system that provides model-based forecasts for inflation in Norway. Forecasts are recursively evaluated from 1999 to 2008. The performance of the models over this period is then used to derive weights that are ...

    • Etterprøving av Norges Banks anslag 

      Jore, Anne Sofie (Journal article, 1999)
      I denne artikkelen analyseres Norges Banks anslag for 1998, gitt henholdsvis høsten 1996 og høsten 1997. I forhold til tidligere artikler om dette temaet går vi et skritt videre i analysen ved å se på anslag med to års ...

    • Etterprøving av Norges Banks anslag for 1999 

      Jore, Anne Sofie (Journal article, 2000)
      For å ha et best mulig beslutningsgrunnlag i pengepolitikken er det blant annet nødvendig for sentralbanken å evaluere sine anslag for den økonomiske utviklingen. Det er tidligere lagt fram analyser av Norges Banks anslag ...

    • Evaluating Ensemble Density Combination - Forecasting GDP and Inflation 

      Gerdrup, Karsten R.; Jore, Anne Sofie; Smith, Christie; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (Working Papers;19/2009, Working paper, 2009)
      Forecast combination has become popular in central banks as a means to improve forecasts and to alleviate the risk of selecting poor models. However, if a model suite is populated with many similar models, then the weight ...

    • Evaluating Real-Time Forecasts from Norges Bank’s System for Averaging Models 

      Jore, Anne Sofie (Staff Memo;12/2012, Working paper, 2012)
      We evaluate forecasts of GDP growth and inflation made by the system of averaging models (SAM) and compare their performance with Norges Bank's forecasts in the Monetary Policy Report. We assess the new version of SAM, as ...

    • Evaluation of Norges Bank's projections 

      Jore, Anne Sofie (Journal article, 1999)
      As a means to drawing up the most accurate projections possible for economic developments, Norges Bank regularly evaluates its model-based forecasts. Analyses of forecast errors may make an important contribution to improving ...

    • Evaluation of Norges Bank's Projections 

      Jore, Anne Sofie (Journal article, 1999)
      As a means to drawing up the most accurate projections possible for economic developments, Norges Bank regularly evaluates its model-based forecasts. Analyses of forecast errors may make an important contribution to improving ...

    • Evaluation of Norges Bank´s Projections 

      Jore, Anne Sofie (Journal article, 2000)
      This article analyses Norges Bank’s projections for 1998, published in autumn 1996 and autumn 1997 respectively. Compared with earlier articles on this subject, we go one step further in the analysis by examining projections ...

    • Evaluation of Norges Bank’s Projections for 1999 

      Jore, Anne Sofie (Journal article, 2001)
      In order to provide the central bank with an optimal basis for the conduct of monetary policy, the central bank must evaluate its projections for economic developments. Norges Bank has previously published analyses of its ...

    • Forecasting Inflation with an Uncertain Output Gap 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Brubakk, Leif; Jore, Anne Sofie (Working Papers;2/2006, Working paper, 2006)
      The output gap is a crucial concept in the monetary policy framework, indicating demand pressure that generates inflation. However, its definition and estimation raise a number of theoretical and empirical questions. This ...

    • Forecasting Recessions in Real Time 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Jore, Anne Sofie; Ravazzolo, Francesco (Working Papers;2/2014, Working paper, 2014)
      We review several methods to define and forecast classical business cycle turning points in Norway. In the paper we compare the Bry - Boschan rule (BB) with a Markov Switching model (MS), using alternative vintages of ...

    • Identification and Real-Time Forecasting of Norwegian Business Cycles 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Jore, Anne Sofie; Ravazzolo, Francesco (Working Papers;9/2015, Working paper, 2015)
      We de fine and forecast classical business cycle turning points for the Norwegian economy. When defining reference business cycles, we compare a univariate and a multivariate Bry-Boschan approach with univariate Markov-switching ...

    • Improving and Evaluating Short Term Forecasts at the Norges Bank 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Jore, Anne Sofie; Smith, Christie; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (Staff Memo;4/2008, Working paper, 2008)
      In 2006 the Norges Bank initiated a project to improve its short term forecasts. The current phase of the project is tasked with developing a system that provides model-based forecasts for gross domestic product and consumer ...

    • Monetary Policy Analysis in Practice - a Conditional Forecasting Approach 

      Bache, Ida Wolden; Brubakk, Leif; Jore, Anne Sofie; Maih, Junior; Nicolaisen, Jon (Staff Memo;8/2010, Working paper, 2010)
      In this paper we provide a broad outline of the forecasting and policy analysis system adopted at Norges Bank.

    • Nowcasting GDP in Real-Time: A Density Combination Approach 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Gerdrup, Karsten R.; Jore, Anne Sofie; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (Working Papers;11/2011, Working paper, 2011)
      In this paper we use U.S. real-time vintage data and produce combined density nowcasts for quarterly GDP growth from a system of three commonly used model classes. The density nowcasts are combined in two steps. First, a ...

    • Revisions of National Accounts 

      Jore, Anne Sofie (Staff Memo;6/2017, Working paper, 2017)
      I investigate revisions of growth rates in nominal and real quarterly GDP for mainland Norway, as well as for the GDP deflator, from 2004 to 2016. Several measures from alternative revision periods are computed. Mean ...

    • Short-Term Forecasting of GDP and Inflation in Real-Time : Norges Bank’s System for Averaging Models 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Gerdrup, Karsten R.; Jore, Anne Sofie (Staff Memo;9/2011, Working paper, 2011)
      In this paper we describe Norges Bank's system for averaging models (SAM) which produces model-based density forecasts for Norwegian Mainland GDP and inflation. We combine the forecasts from three main types of models ...

    • The Output Gap in Norway - a Comparison of Different Methods 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Brubakk, Leif; Jore, Anne Sofie (Journal article, 2005)
      Are pressures in the economy strong or subdued? The answer to this question is important to a central bank operating an inflation-targeting monetary policy regime, because the degree of pressure in the economy can provide ...