Blar i Norges Banks vitenarkiv på forfatter "Paulsen, Kenneth Sæterhagen"
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Aggregate density forecast of models using disaggregate data - A copula approach
Paulsen, Kenneth Sæterhagen; Fastbø, Tuva Marie; Ingebrigtsen, Tobias (Working paper;5/2022, Working paper, 2022)We propose a novel copula approach to producing density forecasts of economic aggregates combining models using disaggregate data. Our copula approach is more flexible compared to existing techniques, because it is applicable ... -
Bankenes likviditetssituasjon under finansuroen høsten 2008
Berg, Sigbjørn Atle; Lund, Arild J.; Paulsen, Kenneth Sæterhagen; Sundvall, Nora (Journal article, 2011)Etter konkursen i Lehman Brothers 15. september 2008 ble omsetningen i internasjonale pengemarkeder sterkt redusert. Banker i omtrent alle land fikk betydelige problemer med finansieringen av sine porteføljer. Sentralbankene ... -
Banks’ Liquidity Situation During the Financial Turmoil in Autumn 2008
Berg, Sigbjørn Atle; Lund, Arild J.; Paulsen, Kenneth Sæterhagen; Sundvall, Nora (Journal article, 2012)In autumn 2008, many banks encountered considerable difficulties with portfolio funding. This article describes the impact on Norwegian banks. The authors also look at the characteristic features of the banks that faced ... -
Conditional Forecasting with DSGE Models - a Conditional Copula Approach
Paulsen, Kenneth Sæterhagen (Working Papers;4/2017, Working paper, 2017)DSGE models may be misspecified in many dimensions, which can affect their forecasting performance. To correct for these misspecifications we can apply conditional information from other models or judgment. Conditional ... -
Documentation of NEMO - Norges Bank’s Core Model for Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting
Gerdrup, Karsten R.; Kravik, Erling Motzfeldt; Paulsen, Kenneth Sæterhagen; Robstad, Ørjan (Staff Memo;8/2017, Working paper, 2017)This paper explains the basic mechanisms of Norges Bank’s core model for monetary policy analysis and forecasting (NEMO). NEMO has recently been extended with an oil sector to incorporate important channels of shocks to ... -
Finding DORY
Landsem, Jørgen; Njølstad, Erlend; Paulsen, Kenneth Sæterhagen; Robstad, Ørjan; Åstebøl, Magnus (Staff Memo;2/2022, Working paper, 2022)This paper describes the semi-structural model DORY used by Norges Bank as a link between raw data, sector experts and the core policy model NEMO. While the primary objective in NEMO is to analyse business cycle fluctuations ... -
Handling structural break points in NEMO
Kravik, Erling Motzfeldt; Paulsen, Kenneth Sæterhagen (Staff Memo;2/2020, Working paper, 2020)This paper documents a new feature in Norges Bank’s policy model NEMO, namely the ability to handle structural break points, i.e. shifts in one or more parameter values at a specific point in time. This property is introduced ... -
Nowcasting Norwegian household consumption with debit card transaction data
Aastveit, Knut Are; Fastbø, Tuva Marie; Granziera, Eleonora; Paulsen, Kenneth Sæterhagen; Torstensen, Kjersti Næss (Working Paper;17/2020, Working paper, 2020)We use a novel data set covering all domestic debit card transactions in physical terminals by Norwegian households, to nowcast quarterly Norwegian household consumption. These card payments data are free of sampling errors ... -
A SMARTer way to forecast
Bowe, Frida; Friis, Inga Nielsen; Loneland, Atle; Njølstad, Erlend Salvesen; Meyer, Sara Skjeggestad; Paulsen, Kenneth Sæterhagen; Robstad, Ørjan (Staff Memo;7/2023, Working paper, 2023)In this paper we describe the newly developed System for Model Analysis in Real Time (SMART) used for forecasting and model analysis in Norges Bank. While the long-term goal is to include all empirical models used in ... -
Symbolic Stationarization of Dynamic Equilibrium Models
Canova, Fabio; Paulsen, Kenneth Sæterhagen (Working paper;18/2021, Working paper, 2021)Dynamic equilibrium models are specified to track time series with unit root-like behavior. Thus, unit roots are typically introduced and the optimality conditions adjusted. This step requires tedious algebra and often ...