Blar i Arbeidsnotater / Working Papers på emneord "density combination"
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Dynamic Predictive Density Combinations for Large Data Sets in Economics and Finance
(Working Papers;12/2015, Working paper, 2015)A Bayesian nonparametric predictive model is introduced to construct time-varying weighted combinations of a large set of predictive densities. A clustering mechanism allocates these densities into a smaller number of ... -
Evaluating Ensemble Density Combination - Forecasting GDP and Inflation
(Working Papers;19/2009, Working paper, 2009)Forecast combination has become popular in central banks as a means to improve forecasts and to alleviate the risk of selecting poor models. However, if a model suite is populated with many similar models, then the weight ... -
Macro Modelling with Many Models
(Working Papers;15/2009, Working paper, 2009)We argue that the next generation of macro modellers at Inflation Targeting central banks should adapt a methodology from the weather forecasting literature known as `ensemble modelling'. In this approach, uncertainty about ... -
Nowcasting GDP in Real-Time: A Density Combination Approach
(Working Papers;11/2011, Working paper, 2011)In this paper we use U.S. real-time vintage data and produce combined density nowcasts for quarterly GDP growth from a system of three commonly used model classes. The density nowcasts are combined in two steps. First, a ...