Browsing Arbeidsnotater / Working Papers by Title
Now showing items 187-206 of 478
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Identification and Real-Time Forecasting of Norwegian Business Cycles
(Working Papers;9/2015, Working paper, 2015)We de fine and forecast classical business cycle turning points for the Norwegian economy. When defining reference business cycles, we compare a univariate and a multivariate Bry-Boschan approach with univariate Markov-switching ... -
Identification of Financial Factors in Economic Fluctuations
(Working Papers;9/2014, Working paper, 2014)We estimate demand, supply, monetary, investment and financial shocks in a VAR identified with a minimum set of sign restrictions on US data. We find that financial shocks are major drivers of fluctuations in output, stock ... -
Identification of Interbank Loans and Interest Rates from Interbank Payments - a Reliability Assessment
(Working Paper;8/2018, Working paper, 2018)We investigate the reliability of the 'Furfine filter' often used to identify interbank loans and interest rates from interbank payments settled at central banks. To this end, we have been granted access to records of all ... -
Identifying Cross-Sided Liquidity Externalities
(Working Papers;20/2012, Working paper, 2012)We study the relevance of the cross-sided externality of liquidity between market makers and takers from the two-sided market perspective and test the empirical implications of the Foucault, Kadan, and Kandel (2012) model. ... -
Identifying the depreciation rate of durables from marginal spending responses
(Working paper;1/2022, Working paper, 2022)This paper presents a novel method to estimate the depreciation rate of durable goods using a combination of identified marginal and average spending shares. We apply our method to Chinese spending responses to disposable ... -
Identifying the Interdependence Between Us Monetary Policy and the Stock Market
(Working Papers;4/2008, Working paper, 2008)We estimate the interdependence between US monetary policy and the S&P 500 using structural VAR methodology. A solution is proposed to the simultaneity problem of identifying monetary and stock price shocks by using a ... -
Identifying the sources of the slowdown in growth: Demand vs. supply
(Working Paper;9/2021, Working paper, 2021)Long-run GDP growth has declined in the United States over the past two decades. Two competing views take the stage in accounting for this slowdown: demand-side and supply-side. I empirically quantify their relative ... -
Illiquidity, Insolvency, and Banking Regulation
(Working Papers;13/2011, Working paper, 2011)This paper provides a compact framework for banking regulation analysis in the presence of uncertainty between systemic liquidity and solvency shocks. It explains the asset price anomalies and bank lending freeze during ... -
Immigration and the Macroeconomy: Some New Empirical Evidence
(Working Papers;18/2016, Working paper, 2016)We propose a new VAR identification scheme that enables us to disentangle immigration shocks from other macroeconomic shocks. Identification is achieved by imposing sign restrictions on Norwegian data over the period 1990Q1 ... -
The impact of financial shocks on the forecast distribution of output and inflation
(Working paper;3/2023, Working paper, 2023)Financial shocks represent a major driver of fluctuations in tail risk, defined as the 5th percentile of the forecast distributions of output and inflation. Since the variance and the asymmetry of the forecast distributions ... -
Implementing the Zero Lower Bound in an Estimated Regime-Switching DSGE Model
(Working Papers;3/2016, Working paper, 2016)The Zero Lower Bound (ZLB) on policy rates is one of the key monetary policy issues du jour. In this paper we investigate the problem of modelling and estimating the ZLB in a simple New Keynesian model with regime switches. ... -
Implications of Insights from Behavioral Economics for Macroeconomic Models
(Working Papers;12/2012, Working paper, 2012)The last 20 years, the importance of a number of behavioral features has been widely accepted within economics, and they are now regularly included in standard macro models. Where has this development led us? I argue that ... -
Implicit Intraday Interest Rate in the UK Unsecured Overnight Money Market
(Working Papers;9/2013, Working paper, 2013)This paper estimates the intraday value of money implicit in the UK unsecured overnight money market. Using transactions data on overnight loans advanced through the UK large value payments system CHAPS in 2003-2009, we ... -
Independence Within Government. A Comparative Perspective on Central Banking in Norway 1945-1970
(Working Papers;20/2011, Working paper, 2011)This article surveys the degree of central bank independence in Norway between 1945 and 1970. By comparing the developments in Norway with those of Sweden and the United Kingdom, it is shown that the Norwegian central bank ... -
Inference in small cointegrated systems: some Monte Carlo results
(Working Papers;9/1991, Working paper, 1991)The Johansen procedure for testing and estimating cointegration models is analysed from a practitioner's perspective. We adress the robustness of the cointegration tests in small samples and with respect to particular types ... -
Inferring Interbank Loans and Interest Rates from Interbank Payments - an Evaluation
(Working Papers;26/2013, Working paper, 2013)We investigate whether overnight interbank loans and interest rates can be reliably inferred at the market and bank level from central banks' interbank payments data. We identify overnight loans and interest rates among ... -
Inflation expectations and the pass-through of oil prices
(Working Paper;5/2020, Working paper, 2020)Do inflation expectations and the associated pass-through of oil price shocks depend on demand and supply conditions underlying the global market for crude oil? We answer this question with a novel structural vector ... -
Inflation Inertia and the Optimal Hybrid Inflation/Price-Level Target
(Working Papers;4/2005, Working paper, 2005)A hybrid inflation/price-level target combines elements of both inflation and price-level targets. The paper derives a hybrid target within a new Keynesian model with inflation persistence due to price indexation. The ... -
The Inflation Rate Disconnect Puzzle: On the International Component of Trend Inflation and the Flattening of the Phillips Curve
(Working paper;17/2021, Working paper, 2021)Since 2000 U.S. inflation has remained both below target and silent to domestic slack and monetary interventions. A trend-cycle BVAR decomposition explores the role of imported intermediate goods in explaining the puzzling ... -
Inflation Targeting Rules: History-Dependent or Forwarding-Looking?
(Working Papers;10/2002, Working paper, 2002)This paper discusses the optimal use of inflation forecasts in an inflation targeting setting with reaction and implementation lags. It distinguishes between the optimality of history-dependence versus forward-lookingness ...