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    • Notes on the Underground: Monetary Policy in Resource-Rich Economies 

      Ferrero, Andrea; Seneca, Martin (Working Papers;2/2015, Working paper, 2015)
      How should monetary policy respond to a commodity price shock in a resource-rich economy? We study optimal monetary policy in a simple model of an oil exporting economy to provide a first answer to this question. The central ...

    • Nowcasting GDP in Real-Time: A Density Combination Approach 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Gerdrup, Karsten R.; Jore, Anne Sofie; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (Working Papers;11/2011, Working paper, 2011)
      In this paper we use U.S. real-time vintage data and produce combined density nowcasts for quarterly GDP growth from a system of three commonly used model classes. The density nowcasts are combined in two steps. First, a ...

    • Nowcasting Norwegian GDP: The Role of Asset Prices in a Small Open Economy 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Trovik, Tørres G. (Working Papers;9/2007, Working paper, 2007)
      This paper finds that asset prices on Oslo Stock Exchange is the single most important block of data to improve estimates of current quarter GDP in Norway. Other important blocks of data are labor market data and industrial ...

    • Nowcasting Norwegian household consumption with debit card transaction data 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Fastbø, Tuva Marie; Granziera, Eleonora; Paulsen, Kenneth Sæterhagen; Torstensen, Kjersti Næss (Working Paper;17/2020, Working paper, 2020)
      We use a novel data set covering all domestic debit card transactions in physical terminals by Norwegian households, to nowcast quarterly Norwegian household consumption. These card payments data are free of sampling errors ...

    • Nowcasting Using News Topics. Big Data Versus Big Bank 

      Thorsrud, Leif Anders (Working Papers;20/2016, Working paper, 2016)
      The agents in the economy use a plethora of high frequency information, including news media, to guide their actions and thereby shape aggregate economic fluctuations. Traditional nowcasting approches have to a relatively ...

    • Oil and Macroeconomic (In)Stability 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Larsen, Vegard Høghaug; Maih, Junior (Working Papers;12/2016, Working paper, 2016)
      We analyze the role of oil price volatility in reducing U.S. macroeconomic instability. Using a Markov Switching Rational Expectation New-Keynesian model we revisit the timing of the Great Moderation and the sources of ...

    • Oil and Us GDP: A Real-Time Out-Of-Sample Examination 

      Ravazzolo, Francesco; Rothman, Philip (Working Papers;18/2010, Working paper, 2010)
      We study the real-time Granger-causal relationship between crude oil prices and US GDP growth through a simulated out-of-sample (OOS) forecasting exercise; we also provide strong evidence of in-sample predictability from ...

    • Oil Price Density Forecasts: Exploring the Linkages with Stock Markets 

      Lombardi, Marco J.; Ravazzolo, Francesco (Working Papers;24/2012, Working paper, 2012)
      In the recent years several commentators hinted at an increase of the correlation between equity and commodity prices, and blamed investment in commodity-related products for this. First, this paper investigates such claims ...

    • Oil price drivers, geopolitical uncertainty and oil exporters’ currencies 

      Akram, Q. Farooq (Working Paper;15/2019, Working paper, 2019)
      Empirical relationships between crude oil prices and exchange rates of oil exporting countries tend to vary over time. I use econometric models of the norwegian and canadian nominal exchange rates to investigate whether ...

    • Oil Price Shocks and Monetary Policy in a Data-Rich Environment 

      Aastveit, Knut Are (Working Papers;10/2013, Working paper, 2013)
      This paper examines the impact of different types of oil price shocks on the U.S. economy, using a factor-augmented VAR (FAVAR) approach. The results indicate that when examining the effects of oil price shocks, it is ...

    • Oil Price Shocks and Stock Market Booms in an Oil Exporting Country 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C. (Working Papers;16/2008, Working paper, 2008)
      This paper analyses the effects of oil price shocks on stock returns in Norway, an oil exporting country, highlighting the transmission channels of oil prices for macroeconomic behaviour. To capture the interaction between ...

    • Oil Wealth and Real Exchange Rates: The FEER for Norway 

      Akram, Q. Farooq (Working Papers;16/2004, Working paper, 2004)
      It is often argued that Norway’s sizeable net foreign assets based on its petroleum wealth imply an appreciation of its real exchange rate to a permanently strong level. We investigate this issue within the framework of ...

    • On the Concavity of the Consumption Function with Liquidity Constraints 

      Holm, Martin Blomhoff (Working Papers;14/2016, Working paper, 2016)
      Carroll and Kimball (1996) prove that the consumption function is concave if infinitely-lived risk-averse households have a utility function which exhibits Hyperbolic Absolute Risk Aversion (HARA), face income uncertainty, ...

    • On the Design of Monetary Policy Committees 

      Blinder, Alan S. (Working Papers;6/2008, Working paper, 2008)
      Keynote lecture prepared for the Norges Bank research workshop “Monetary Policy Committees,” Oslo, September 6-7, 2007.

    • On the Interplay Between Monetary Policy and Macroprudential Policy: A Simple Analytical Framework 

      Røisland, Øistein (Working Papers;18/2018, Working paper, 2017)
      The paper provides a simple analytical framework for analyzing the interplay between monetary policy and macroprudential policy. Three questions are analyzed: (i) Under which assumptions is coordination necessary to implement ...

    • Opacity and risk-taking: Evidence from Norway 

      Cao, Jin; Juelsrud, Ragnar E. (Working Paper;12/2020, Working paper, 2020)
      This paper investigates how balance sheet opacity affects banks' risk-taking behavior. We measure bank balance sheet opacity according to two metrics: the ratio of available-for-sale (AFS) securities and the ratio of ...

    • OPEC's Market Power: An Empirical Dominant Firm Model for the Oil Market 

      Golombek, Rolf; Irarrazabal, Alfonso; Ma, Lin (Working Papers;3/2014, Working paper, 2014)
      In this paper we estimate a dominant firm-competitive fringe model for the crude oil market using quarterly data on oil prices for the 1986-2009 period. All the estimated structural parameters have the expected sign and ...

    • Open-Economy Inflation Forecast Targeting 

      Leitemo, Kai (Working Papers;2/2000, Working paper, 2000)
      The paper shows that the procedure of inflation forecast targeting arguably implemented by Sveriges Riksbank and the Bank of England may lead to high nominal and real variability; the latter being manifested most notably ...

    • Optimal Bailout During Currency and Financial Crises: A Sequential Game Analysis 

      Mundaca, B. Gabriela (Working Papers;13/2000, Working paper, 2000)
      We present a model that illustrates the close relationship between the possibility of a currency crisis and the amount of private-sector debt within a four-stage sequential game framework. The agents are the government and ...

    • Optimal Dutch Disease 

      Matsen, Egil; Torvik, Ragnar (Working Papers;3/2003, Working paper, 2003)
      Growth models of the Dutch disease, such as those of Krugman (1987), Matsuyama (1992), Sachs and Warner (1995) and Gylfason et al. (1999), explain why resource abundance may reduce growth. The literature, however, also ...