Blar i Arbeidsnotater / Working Papers på tittel

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    • Central Banks Under German Rule During World War II: The Case of Norway 

      Espeli, Harald (Working Papers;2/2012, Working paper, 2012)
      Until the German invasion of Norway 9 April 1940 the Norwegian central bank had been one of the most independent in Western Europe. This article investigates the agency of the Norwegian central bank during the German ...

    • Central Clearing and Risk Transformation 

      Cont, Rama (Working Papers;3/2017, Working paper, 2017)
      The clearing of over-the-counter transactions through central counterparties (CCPs), one of the pillars of financial reform following the crisis of 2007-2008, has promoted CCPs as key elements of the new global financial ...

    • Changing Supply Elasticities and Regional Housing Booms 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Albuquerque, Bruno; Anundsen, André (Working Paper;8/2019, Working paper, 2019)
      Recent developments in US house prices mirror those of the 1996-2006 boom, but the recovery in construction activity has been weak. Using data for 254 US metropolitan areas, we show hat housing supply elasticities have ...

    • Climate risk and commodity currencies 

      Kapfhammer, Felix; Larsen, Vegard H.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (Working Paper;18/2020, Working paper, 2020)
      The positive relationship between real exchange rates and natural resource income is well understood and studied. However, climate change and the transition to a lower-carbon economy now challenges this relationship. We ...

    • Collateral and Repeated Lending 

      Karapetyan, Artashes; Stacescu, Bogdan (Working Papers;18/2012, Working paper, 2012)
      Lending is often associated with significant asymmetric information issues between suppliers of funds and their potential borrowers. Banks can screen their borrowers, or can require them to post collateral in order to ...

    • Collateral Damaged? Priority Structure, Credit Supply, and Firm Performance 

      Cerqueiro, Geraldo; Ongena, Steven; Roszbach, Kasper (Working Paper;9/2019, Working paper, 2019)
      A unique legal reform in 2004 in Sweden redistributed collateral rights from banks holding floating liens to unsecured creditors without changing the value of assets on firms’ balance sheets. Using a country-wide panel of ...

    • Collective Economic Decisions and the Discursive Dilemma 

      Claussen, Carl Andreas; Røisland, Øistein (Working Papers;3/2005, Working paper, 2005)
      Most economic decisions involve judgments. When decisions are taken collectively, various judgment aggregation problems may occur. Here we consider an aggregation problem called the discursive dilemma , which is characterized ...

    • Combination Schemes for Turning Point Predictions 

      Billio, Monica; Casarin, Roberto; Ravazzolo, Francesco; van Dijk, Herman K. (Working Papers;4/2012, Working paper, 2012)
      We propose new forecast combination schemes for predicting turning points of business cycles. The combination schemes deal with the forecasting performance of a given set of models and possibly providing better turning ...

    • Combined Density Nowcasting in an Uncertain Economic Environment 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Ravazzolo, Francesco; van Dijk, Herman K. (Working Papers;17/2014, Working paper, 2014)
      We introduce a Combined Density Nowcasting (CDN) approach to Dynamic Factor Models (DFM) that in a coherent way accounts for time-varying uncertainty of several model and data features in order to provide more accurate and ...

    • Combining Forecast Densities from VARs with Uncertain Instabilities 

      Jore, Anne Sofie; Mitchell, James; Vahey, Shaun P. (Working Papers;1/2008, Working paper, 2008)
      Clark and McCracken (2008) argue that combining real-time point forecasts from VARs of output, prices and interest rates improves point forecast accuracy in the presence of uncertain model instabilities. In this paper, we ...

    • Combining Inflation Density Forecasts 

      Kascha, Christian; Ravazzolo, Francesco (Working Papers;22/2008, Working paper, 2008)
      In this paper, we empirically evaluate competing approaches for combining inflation density forecasts in terms of Kullback-Leibler divergence. In particular, we apply a similar suite of models to four different data sets ...

    • Combining Predictive Densities Using Bayesian Filtering with Applications to Us Economics Data 

      Billio, Monica; Casarin, Roberto; Ravazzolo, Francesco; van Dijk, Herman K. (Working Papers;29/2010, Working paper, 2010)
      Using a Bayesian framework this paper provides a multivariate combination approach to prediction based on a distributional state space representation of predictive densities from alternative models. In the proposed approach ...

    • Combining VAR and DSGE Forecast Densities 

      Bache, Ida Wolden; Jore, Anne Sofie; Mitchell, James; Vahey, Shaun P. (Working Papers;23/2009, Working paper, 2009)
      A popular macroeconomic forecasting strategy takes combinations across many models to hedge against instabilities of unknown timing; see (among others) Stock and Watson (2004), Clark and McCracken (2010), and Jore et al. ...

    • Commodity Prices, Interest Rates and the Dollar 

      Akram, Q. Farooq (Working Papers;12/2008, Working paper, 2008)
      We investigate whether a decline in real interest rates and the US dollar contribute to higher commodity prices, and whether commodity prices tend to display overshooting behavior in response to changes in especially real ...

    • Communicating Monetary Policy Intentions: The Case of Norges Bank 

      Holmsen, Amund; Qvigstad, Jan F.; Røisland, Øistein; Solberg-Johansen, Kristin (Working Papers;20/2008, Working paper, 2008)
      Monetary policy works mainly through private agents’ expectations. How precisely future policy intentions are communicated has, according to theory, implications for the outcome of monetary policy. Norges Bank has gone ...

    • Comparing Behavioural Heterogeneity Across Asset Classes 

      Hommes, Cars H.; Zwinkels, Remco C.J.; ter Ellen, Saskia (Working Papers;12/2017, Working paper, 2017)
      We estimate a generic agent-based model in which agents have heterogeneous beliefs about the future price to see to what extent behaviour differs across assets, and what this implies for market stability. We find evidence ...

    • Components of Uncertainty 

      Larsen, Vegard Høghaug (Working Papers;5/2017, Working paper, 2017)
      Uncertainty is acknowledged to be a source of economic fluctuations. But, does the type of uncertainty matter for the economy's response to an uncertainty shock? This paper offers a novel identification strategy to disentangle ...

    • Computing the Distribution: Adaptive Finite Volume Methods for Economic Models with Heterogeneous Agents 

      Ahn, SeHyoun (Working Paper;10/2019, Working paper, 2019)
      Solving economic models with heterogenous agents requires computing aggregate dynamics consistent with individual behaviors. This paper introduces the finite volume method from the mathe-matics literature to enlarge the set ...

    • Conditional Forecasting with DSGE Models - a Conditional Copula Approach 

      Paulsen, Kenneth Sæterhagen (Working Papers;4/2017, Working paper, 2017)
      DSGE models may be misspecified in many dimensions, which can affect their forecasting performance. To correct for these misspecifications we can apply conditional information from other models or judgment. Conditional ...

    • Conditional Forecasts in DSGE Models 

      Maih, Junior (Working Papers;7/2010, Working paper, 2010)
      New-generation DSGE models are sometimes misspecified in dimensions that matter for their forecasting performance. The paper suggests one way to improve the forecasts of a DSGE model using a conditioning information that ...