Is the Price Level in Norway Determined by Fiscal Policy?

Abstract

The Norwegian public sector has net financial assets. The fiscal theory of price determination applies equally to Norway and economies with net public debt: If primary surpluses evolve independently of nominal debt (or assets), the price level has to adjust to satisfy the intertemporal budget constraint of the public sector. In this ‘non-Ricardian’ regime, monetary policy cannot provide the nominal anchor. In the alternative ‘Ricardian’ regime, surpluses respond to debt, and monetary policy is the nominal anchor. The plausibility of NR regimes is disputed. I use fiscal data and oil prices to argue that the Norwegian regime is Ricardian.