Evaluation of Norges Bank’s Projections for 2006

Abstract

Growth in the mainland economy in 2006 was appreciably higher than projected by Norges Bank and it is likely that the output gap was also more positive than projected. At the same time, consumer price inflation adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products was lower than expected. Unexpectedly low inflation coupled with higher-than-projected output and employment growth may reflect the influence of unforeseen factors on the supply side of the economy. In recent years, for example, inward labour migration has been higher than assumed by Norges Bank. This has eased labour shortages and contributed to growth in potential output. Productivity growth has also been higher than expected in many industries. Other forecasters’ projections for developments in output and prices in 2006 were not substantially better than Norges Bank’s projections.