Browsing Norges Banks vitenarkiv by Subject "stochastic volatility"
Now showing items 1-5 of 5
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Have Standard VARs Remained Stable Since the Crisis?
(Working Papers;13/2014, Working paper, 2014)Small or medium-scale VARs are commonly used in applied macroeconomics for forecasting and evaluating the shock transmission mechanism. This requires the VAR parameters to be stable over the evaluation and forecast sample, ... -
Macroeconomic Factors Strike Back: A Bayesian Change-Point Model of Time-Varying Risk Exposures and Premia in the U.S. Cross-Section
(Working Papers;19/2013, Working paper, 2013)This paper proposes a Bayesian estimation framework for a typical multi-factor model with time-varying risk exposures to macroeconomic risk factors and corresponding premia to price U.S. stocks and bonds. The model assumes ... -
Myths and Facts About the Alleged Over-Pricing of U.S. Real Estate. Evidence from Multi-Factor Asset Pricing Models of REIT Returns
(Working Papers;19/2011, Working paper, 2011)This paper uses a multi-factor pricing model with time-varying risk exposures and premia to examine whether the 2003-2006 period has been characterized, as often claimed by a number of commentators and policymakers, by a ... -
The Macroeconomic Forecasting Performance of Autoregressive Models with Alternative Specifications of Time-Varying Volatility
(Working Papers;9/2012, Working paper, 2012)This paper compares alternative models of time-varying macroeconomic volatility on the basis of the accuracy of point and density forecasts of macroeconomic variables. In this analysis, we consider both Bayesian autoregressive ... -
The Role of Oil Prices and Monetary Policy in the Norwegian Economy Since the 1980s
(Working Papers;1/2016, Working paper, 2016)We use a TVP-VAR model to investigate possible changes in the time series properties of key Norwegian macroeconomic variables since the 1980s. The sample period is characterised by deregulation, globalization, sizable ...