• Asset Returns, News Topics, and Media Effects 

      Larsen, Vegard Høghaug; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (Working Papers;17/2017, Working paper, 2017)
      We decompose the textual data in a daily Norwegian business newspaper into news topics and investigate their predictive and causal role for asset prices. Our three main findings are: (1) a one unit innovation in the news ...
    • Business cycle narratives 

      Larsen, Vegard Høghaug; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (Working papers;3/2018, Working paper, 2018)
      This article quantifies the epidemiology of media narratives relevant to business cycles in the US, Japan, and Europe (euro area). We do so by first constructing daily business cycle indexes computed on the basis of the ...
    • Business Cycles in an Oil Economy: Lessons from Norway 

      Bergholt, Drago; Larsen, Vegard Høghaug (Working Papers;16/2016, Working paper, 2016)
      The recent oil price fall has created concern among policy makers regarding the consequences of terms of trade shocks for resource-rich countries. This concern is not a minor one – the world's commodity exporters combined ...
    • Components of Uncertainty 

      Larsen, Vegard Høghaug (Working Papers;5/2017, Working paper, 2017)
      Uncertainty is acknowledged to be a source of economic fluctuations. But, does the type of uncertainty matter for the economy's response to an uncertainty shock? This paper offers a novel identification strategy to disentangle ...
    • House price prediction using daily news data 

      Kirkeby, Sara Jahr; Larsen, Vegard Høghaug (Staff Memo;5/2021, Working paper, 2021)
      We investigate whether information from news articles could improve predictions of house price inflation at a short forecast horizon. The Covid-19 pandemic led to a shutdown of the Norwegian economy on 12 March 2020. Large ...
    • News-Driven Inflation Expectations and Information Rigidities 

      Larsen, Vegard Høghaug; Thorsrud, Leif Anders; Zhulanova, Julia (Working Paper;5/2019, Working paper, 2019)
      We investigate the role played by the media in the expectations formation process of households. Using a novel news-topic-based approach we show that news types the media choose to report on, e.g., fiscal policy, health, ...
    • Oil and Macroeconomic (In)Stability 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Larsen, Vegard Høghaug; Maih, Junior (Working Papers;12/2016, Working paper, 2016)
      We analyze the role of oil price volatility in reducing U.S. macroeconomic instability. Using a Markov Switching Rational Expectation New-Keynesian model we revisit the timing of the Great Moderation and the sources of ...