• Documentation of NEMO - Norges Bank’s Core Model for Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting 

      Gerdrup, Karsten R.; Kravik, Erling Motzfeldt; Paulsen, Kenneth Sæterhagen; Robstad, Ørjan (Staff Memo;8/2017, Working paper, 2017)
      This paper explains the basic mechanisms of Norges Bank’s core model for monetary policy analysis and forecasting (NEMO). NEMO has recently been extended with an oil sector to incorporate important channels of shocks to ...
    • Effects of a New Monetary Policy Loss Function in NEMO 

      Lund, Kathrine; Robstad, Ørjan (Staff Memo;10/2012, Working paper, 2012)
      In this memo we provide technical documentation of the impulse responses to some representative shocks in NEMO. The impulse responses are shown both with the new specification of the monetary policy loss function presented ...
    • Estimates of the Neutral Rate of Interest in Norway 

      Brubakk, Leif; Ellingsen, Jon; Robstad, Ørjan (Staff Memo;7/2018, Working paper, 2018)
      In this paper, we estimate the neutral real rate for the Norwegian economy using two different empirical models, a vector autoregressive model with time-varying parameters (TVP-VAR) and a State-Space (SS) model similar to ...
    • Estimating hysteresis effects 

      Furlanetto, Francesco; Robstad, Ørjan; Ulvedal, Pål; Lepetit, Antoine (Working Paper;13/2020, Working paper, 2020)
      In this paper we extend the standard Blanchard-Quah decomposition to enable fluctuations in aggregate demand to have a long-run impact on the productive capacity of the economy through hysteresis effects. These demand ...
    • Financial Imbalances, Crisis Probability and Monetary Policy in Norway 

      Alstadheim, Ragna; Robstad, Ørjan; Vonen, Nikka Husom (Working Papers;21/2017, Working paper, 2017)
      We assess the strength of the impact of a monetary policy shock on financial crisis probability in Norway. Policy effects go via the interest rate impact on credit, house prices and banks’ wholesale funding. We find that ...
    • Finding DORY 

      Landsem, Jørgen; Njølstad, Erlend; Paulsen, Kenneth Sæterhagen; Robstad, Ørjan; Åstebøl, Magnus (Staff Memo;2/2022, Working paper, 2022)
      This paper describes the semi-structural model DORY used by Norges Bank as a link between raw data, sector experts and the core policy model NEMO. While the primary objective in NEMO is to analyse business cycle fluctuations ...
    • House Prices, Credit and the Effect of Monetary Policy in Norway: Evidence from Structural VAR Models 

      Robstad, Ørjan (Working Papers;5/2014, Working paper, 2014)
      This paper investigates the responses of house prices and household credit to monetary policy shocks in Norway, using Bayesian structural VAR models. I find that the effect of a monetary policy shock on house prices is ...
    • Immigration and the Macroeconomy: Some New Empirical Evidence 

      Furlanetto, Francesco; Robstad, Ørjan (Working Papers;18/2016, Working paper, 2016)
      We propose a new VAR identification scheme that enables us to disentangle immigration shocks from other macroeconomic shocks. Identification is achieved by imposing sign restrictions on Norwegian data over the period 1990Q1 ...
    • The macroeconomic effects of forward communication 

      Brubakk, Leif; ter Ellen, Saskia; Robstad, Ørjan; Xu, Hong (Working Paper;20/2019, Working paper, 2019)
      This paper provides an empirical assessment of the power of forward guidance at different horizons, shedding new light on the strength of the “forward guidance puzzle”. Our identification strategy allows us to disentangle ...
    • Model Estimates of the Output Gap 

      Hagelund, Kåre; Hansen, Frank; Robstad, Ørjan (Staff Memo;4/2018, Working paper, 2018)
      This paper documents a set of models used by Norges Bank in estimating the output gap. The models take into account developments in key cyclical indicators such as GDP, unemployment, inflation, wage growth, investment, ...
    • Modellberegninger av produksjonsgapet 

      Hagelund, Kåre; Hansen, Frank; Robstad, Ørjan (Staff Memo;4/2018, Working paper, 2018)
      I denne artikkelen dokumenteres et sett av modeller som Norges Bank benytter i vurderingen av produksjonsgapet. Modellene tar hensyn til utviklingen i sentrale konjunkturindikatorer som BNP, arbeidsledighet, inflasjon, ...
    • Norges Bank Output Gap Estimates: Forecasting Properties, Reliability and Cyclical Sensitivity 

      Furlanetto, Francesco; Hagelund, Kåre; Hansen, Frank; Robstad, Ørjan (Working Paper;7/2020, Working paper, 2020)
      This paper documents the suite of models used by Norges Bank to estimate the output gap. The models are estimated using data on GDP, unemployment, inflation, wages, investment, house prices and credit. We evaluate the ...