Blar i Norges Banks vitenarkiv på forfatter "Smith, Christie"

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    • Does Forecast Combination Improve Norges Bank Inflation Forecasts? 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Gerdrup, Karsten R.; Jore, Anne Sofie; Smith, Christie; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (Working Papers;1/2009, Working paper, 2009)
      We develop a system that provides model-based forecasts for inflation in Norway. Forecasts are recursively evaluated from 1999 to 2008. The performance of the models over this period is then used to derive weights that are ...

    • Evaluating Ensemble Density Combination - Forecasting GDP and Inflation 

      Gerdrup, Karsten R.; Jore, Anne Sofie; Smith, Christie; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (Working Papers;19/2009, Working paper, 2009)
      Forecast combination has become popular in central banks as a means to improve forecasts and to alleviate the risk of selecting poor models. However, if a model suite is populated with many similar models, then the weight ...

    • Improving and Evaluating Short Term Forecasts at the Norges Bank 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Jore, Anne Sofie; Smith, Christie; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (Staff Memo;4/2008, Working paper, 2008)
      In 2006 the Norges Bank initiated a project to improve its short term forecasts. The current phase of the project is tasked with developing a system that provides model-based forecasts for gross domestic product and consumer ...

    • RBCs and DSGEs: The Computational Approach to Business Cycle Theory and Evidence 

      Karagedikli, Özer; Matheson, Troy; Smith, Christie; Vahey, Shaun P. (Working Papers;17/2008, Working paper, 2008)
      Real Business Cycle (RBC) and Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) methods have become essential components of the macroeconomist’s toolkit. This literature review stresses recently developed techniques for ...

    • Weights and Pools for a Norwegian Density Combination 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Gerdrup, Karsten R.; Smith, Christie; Jore, Anne Sofie; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (Working Papers;6/2010, Working paper, 2010)
      We apply a suite of models to produce quasi-real-time density forecasts of Norwegian GDP and inflation, and evaluate different combination and selection methods using the Kullback-Leibler information criterion (KLIC). We ...