Blar i Norges Banks vitenarkiv på emneord "JEL: C11"
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Climate risk and commodity currencies
(Working Paper;18/2020, Working paper, 2020)The positive relationship between real exchange rates and natural resource income is well understood and studied. However, climate change and the transition to a lower-carbon economy now challenges this relationship. We ... -
Combination Schemes for Turning Point Predictions
(Working Papers;4/2012, Working paper, 2012)We propose new forecast combination schemes for predicting turning points of business cycles. The combination schemes deal with the forecasting performance of a given set of models and possibly providing better turning ... -
Combined Density Nowcasting in an Uncertain Economic Environment
(Working Papers;17/2014, Working paper, 2014)We introduce a Combined Density Nowcasting (CDN) approach to Dynamic Factor Models (DFM) that in a coherent way accounts for time-varying uncertainty of several model and data features in order to provide more accurate and ... -
Combining Predictive Densities Using Bayesian Filtering with Applications to Us Economics Data
(Working Papers;29/2010, Working paper, 2010)Using a Bayesian framework this paper provides a multivariate combination approach to prediction based on a distributional state space representation of predictive densities from alternative models. In the proposed approach ... -
Density Forecasts with Midas Models
(Working Papers;10/2014, Working paper, 2014)In this paper we derive a general parametric bootstrapping approach to compute density forecasts for various types of mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) regressions. We consider both classical and unrestricted MIDAS regressions ... -
Do Central Banks Respond Timely to Developments in the Global Economy?
(Working Papers;19/2016, Working paper, 2016)Our analysis suggests; they do not! To arrive at this conclusion we construct a real-time data set of interest rate projections from central banks in three small open economies; New Zealand, Norway, and Sweden, and analyze ... -
Dynamic Predictive Density Combinations for Large Data Sets in Economics and Finance
(Working Papers;12/2015, Working paper, 2015)A Bayesian nonparametric predictive model is introduced to construct time-varying weighted combinations of a large set of predictive densities. A clustering mechanism allocates these densities into a smaller number of ... -
Forecast Densities for Economic Aggregates from Disaggregate Ensembles
(Working Papers;2/2010, Working paper, 2010)We propose a methodology for producing forecast densities for economic aggregates based on disaggregate evidence. Our ensemble predictive methodology utilizes a linear mixture of experts framework to combine the forecast ... -
Forecasting GDP with Global Components. This Time Is Different
(Working Papers;5/2015, Working paper, 2015)A long strand of literature has shown that the world has become more global. Yet, the recent Great Global Recession turned out to be hard to predict, with forecasters across the world committing large forecast errors. We ... -
Foreign Shocks
(Working Papers;15/2015, Working paper, 2015)How and to what extent are small open economies affected by international shocks? I develop and estimate a medium scale DSGE model that addresses both questions. The model incorporates i) international markets for firm-to-firm ... -
Global and Regional Business Cycles. Shocks and Propagations
(Working Papers;8/2013, Working paper, 2013)We study the synchronization of real and nominal variables across four different regions of the world, Asia, Europe, North and South America, covering 32 different countries. Employing a FAVAR framework, we distinguish ... -
Have Standard VARs Remained Stable Since the Crisis?
(Working Papers;13/2014, Working paper, 2014)Small or medium-scale VARs are commonly used in applied macroeconomics for forecasting and evaluating the shock transmission mechanism. This requires the VAR parameters to be stable over the evaluation and forecast sample, ... -
Identification of Financial Factors in Economic Fluctuations
(Working Papers;9/2014, Working paper, 2014)We estimate demand, supply, monetary, investment and financial shocks in a VAR identified with a minimum set of sign restrictions on US data. We find that financial shocks are major drivers of fluctuations in output, stock ... -
Immigration and the Macroeconomy: Some New Empirical Evidence
(Working Papers;18/2016, Working paper, 2016)We propose a new VAR identification scheme that enables us to disentangle immigration shocks from other macroeconomic shocks. Identification is achieved by imposing sign restrictions on Norwegian data over the period 1990Q1 ... -
The Inflation Rate Disconnect Puzzle: On the International Component of Trend Inflation and the Flattening of the Phillips Curve
(Working paper;17/2021, Working paper, 2021)Since 2000 U.S. inflation has remained both below target and silent to domestic slack and monetary interventions. A trend-cycle BVAR decomposition explores the role of imported intermediate goods in explaining the puzzling ... -
Interactions Between Eurozone and US Booms and Busts: A Bayesian Panel Markov-Switching VAR Model
(Working Papers;20/2013, Working paper, 2013)Interactions between the eurozone and US booms and busts and among major eurozone economies are analyzed by introducing a panel Markov-switching VAR model well suitable for a multi-country cyclical analysis. The model ... -
Joint Prediction Bands for Macroeconomic Risk Management
(Working Papers;7/2016, Working paper, 2016)In this paper we address the issue of assessing and communicating the joint probabilities implied by density forecasts from multivariate time series models. We focus our attention in three areas. First, we investigate a ... -
Labour Supply Factors and Economic Fluctuations
(Working Papers;7/2015, Working paper, 2015)We propose a new VAR identification scheme that enables us to disentangle labour supply shocks from wage bargaining shocks. identification is achieved by imposing robust signrestrictions that are derived from a New Keynesian ... -
Macro Modelling with Many Models
(Working Papers;15/2009, Working paper, 2009)We argue that the next generation of macro modellers at Inflation Targeting central banks should adapt a methodology from the weather forecasting literature known as `ensemble modelling'. In this approach, uncertainty about ... -
Monitoring multicountry macroeconomic risk
(Working paper;9/2023, Working paper, 2023)We propose a multicountry quantile factor augmeneted vector autoregression (QFAVAR) to model heterogeneities both across countries and across characteristics of the distributions of macroeconomic time series. The presence ...