Blar i Norges Banks vitenarkiv på emneord "JEL: C32"
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A Test of Uncovered Interest Rate Parity for Ten European Countries Based on Bottstrapping and Panel Data Models
(Working Papers;9/1997, Working paper, 1997)Based on both single country models and panel data models uncovered interest rate parity is tested for ten European countries relative to Germany by regressing exchange rate changes on interest rate differentials. The ... -
Assessing Estimates of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through
(Working Papers;12/2007, Working paper, 2007)We investigate optimal horizons for targeting inflation in response to different shocks and their properties under alternative preferences of an inflation-targeting central bank. Our analysis is based on a well specified ... -
Bad News, Good News: Coverage and Response Asymmetries
(Working paper;8/2022, Working paper, 2022)We study the dynamic link between economic news coverage and the macroeconomy. We construct two measures of media coverage of bad and good unemployment figures based on three major US newspapers. Using nonlinear time series ... -
Boom or Gloom? Examining the Dutch Disease in Two-Speed Economies
(Working Papers;12/2014, Working paper, 2014)Traditional studies of the Dutch disease do not account for productivity spillovers between the booming resource sector and other domestic sectors. We put forward a simple theory model that allows for such spillovers. We ... -
Bootstrapping the Likelihood Ratio Cointegration Test in Error Correction Models with Unknown Lag Order
(Working Papers;12/2009, Working paper, 2009)We investigate the small-sample size and power properties of bootstrapped likelihood ratio systems cointegration tests via Monte Carlo simulations when the true lag order of the data generating process is unknown. A recursive ... -
Combined Density Nowcasting in an Uncertain Economic Environment
(Working Papers;17/2014, Working paper, 2014)We introduce a Combined Density Nowcasting (CDN) approach to Dynamic Factor Models (DFM) that in a coherent way accounts for time-varying uncertainty of several model and data features in order to provide more accurate and ... -
Combining Forecast Densities from VARs with Uncertain Instabilities
(Working Papers;1/2008, Working paper, 2008)Clark and McCracken (2008) argue that combining real-time point forecasts from VARs of output, prices and interest rates improves point forecast accuracy in the presence of uncertain model instabilities. In this paper, we ... -
Combining VAR and DSGE Forecast Densities
(Working Papers;23/2009, Working paper, 2009)A popular macroeconomic forecasting strategy takes combinations across many models to hedge against instabilities of unknown timing; see (among others) Stock and Watson (2004), Clark and McCracken (2010), and Jore et al. ... -
Detecting Imbalances in House Prices: What Goes up Must Come Down?
(Working Papers;11/2016, Working paper, 2016)With the aid of econometric modeling, I investigate whether rapidly increasing house prices necessarily imply the existence of a bubble that will eventually burst. I consider four alternative econometric methods to construct ... -
Did Us Consumers ”Save for a Rainy Day” Before the Great Recession?
(Working Papers;8/2015, Working paper, 2015)The 'saving for a rainy day' hypothesis implies that households' saving decisions reflect that they can (rationally) predict future income declines. The empirical relevance of this hypothesis plays a key role in discussions ... -
Dutch disease dynamics reconsidered
(Working papers;2018/1, Working paper, 2018)In this paper we develop the first model to incorporate the dynamic productivity consequences of both the spending effect and the resource movement effect of oil abundance. We show that doing so dramatically alters the ... -
Employment Behaviour in Slack and Tight Labour Markets
(Working Papers;7/2001, Working paper, 2001)Empirical and theoretical studies suggest that employment behaviour varies with the state of the labour market since hiring and firings costs depend on the availability of labour. Extending earlier empirical work on this ... -
Estimating hysteresis effects
(Working Paper;13/2020, Working paper, 2020)In this paper we extend the standard Blanchard-Quah decomposition to enable fluctuations in aggregate demand to have a long-run impact on the productive capacity of the economy through hysteresis effects. These demand ... -
Estimating New Keynesian Import Price Models
(Working Papers;15/2007, Working paper, 2007)We estimate a range of New Keynesian import price models for Norway and the UK. Contrary to standard pass-through regression analysis, this approach allows us to make a distinction between the parameters in theoretical ... -
Evaluating Ensemble Density Combination - Forecasting GDP and Inflation
(Working Papers;19/2009, Working paper, 2009)Forecast combination has become popular in central banks as a means to improve forecasts and to alleviate the risk of selecting poor models. However, if a model suite is populated with many similar models, then the weight ... -
Explaining Deviations from Okun’s Law
(Working paper;4/2022, Working paper, 2022)Despite its stability over time, as for any statistical relationship, Okun’s law is subject to deviations that can be large at times. In this paper, we provide a mapping between residuals in Okun’s regressions and structural ... -
Explaining the Low US Inflation – Coincidence or “New Economy”? Evidence Based on a Wage-Price Spiral
(Working Papers;2/2001, Working paper, 2001)We study possible factors behind the subdued inflation in the United States since the mid-1990s. A standard expectations-augmented Phillips curve does not exhibit structural breaks. However, a wage-price spiral comprising ... -
Forecast Densities for Economic Aggregates from Disaggregate Ensembles
(Working Papers;2/2010, Working paper, 2010)We propose a methodology for producing forecast densities for economic aggregates based on disaggregate evidence. Our ensemble predictive methodology utilizes a linear mixture of experts framework to combine the forecast ... -
Forecasting Inflation with an Uncertain Output Gap
(Working Papers;2/2006, Working paper, 2006)The output gap is a crucial concept in the monetary policy framework, indicating demand pressure that generates inflation. However, its definition and estimation raise a number of theoretical and empirical questions. This ... -
Forecasting Recessions in Real Time
(Working Papers;2/2014, Working paper, 2014)We review several methods to define and forecast classical business cycle turning points in Norway. In the paper we compare the Bry - Boschan rule (BB) with a Markov Switching model (MS), using alternative vintages of ...