Blar i Norges Banks vitenarkiv på emneord "JEL: C51"
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Bayesian Nonparametric Calibration and Combination of Predictive Distributions
(Working Papers;3/2015, Working paper, 2015)We introduce a Bayesian approach to predictive density calibration and combination that accounts for parameter uncertainty and model set incompleteness through the use of random calibration functionals and random combination ... -
Consumption and Population Age Structure
(Working Papers;22/2004, Working paper, 2004)In this paper the effects on aggregate consumption of changes in the age distribution of the population are analysed empirically. Economic theories predict that age influences individuals’ saving and consumption behaviour. ... -
Detecting Imbalances in House Prices: What Goes up Must Come Down?
(Working Papers;11/2016, Working paper, 2016)With the aid of econometric modeling, I investigate whether rapidly increasing house prices necessarily imply the existence of a bubble that will eventually burst. I consider four alternative econometric methods to construct ... -
Did Us Consumers ”Save for a Rainy Day” Before the Great Recession?
(Working Papers;8/2015, Working paper, 2015)The 'saving for a rainy day' hypothesis implies that households' saving decisions reflect that they can (rationally) predict future income declines. The empirical relevance of this hypothesis plays a key role in discussions ... -
Empirical Modelling of Norwegian Import Prices
(Working Papers;1/2002, Working paper, 2002)In this paper we investigate the formation of Norwegian import prices of manufactures over the period 1970(1)–1998(3), thereby extending the sample period used in the study by Naug and Nymoen (1996). If international goods ... -
Estimating the Natural Rates in a Simple New Keynesian Framework
(Working Papers;10/2007, Working paper, 2007)The time-varying natural rate of interest and output and the implied medium term inflation target for the US economy are estimated over the period 1983-2005. The estimation is conducted within the New-Keynesian framework ... -
Flexible Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability: Is It Enough to Stabilise Inflation and Output?
(Working Papers;7/2006, Working paper, 2006)We investigate empirically whether a central bank can promote financial stability by stabilizing inflation and output, and whether additional stabilization of asset prices and credit growth would enhance financial stability ... -
Kan pengepolitikken påvirke koordineringsgraden i lønnsdannelsen? En empirisk analyse
(Arbeidsnotater;7/2002, Working paper, 2002)I økonomisk litteratur blir det hevdet at koordinering blant partene i lønnsdannelsen er ønskelig, fordi en slik løsning reduserer lønnspresset og følgelig arbeidsledigheten i økonomien. Modellen i Holden (2001) viser at ... -
Mismatch Shocks and Unemployment During the Great Recession
(Working Papers;16/2013, Working paper, 2013)We investigate the macroeconomic consequences of fluctuations in the effectiveness of the labor-market matching process with a focus on the Great Recession. We conduct our analysis in the context of an estimated medium-scale ... -
Model Specification and Inflation Forecast Uncertainty
(Working Papers;6/2000, Working paper, 2000)Three classes of inflation models are discussed: Standard Phillips curves, New Keynesian Phillips curves and Incomplete Competition models. Their relative merits in explaining and forecasting inflation are investigated ... -
Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: To Respond or Not?
(Working Papers;9/2005, Working paper, 2005)We investigate whether there is a case for asset prices in interest rates rules within a small econometric model of the Norwegian economy, modeling the interdependence of the real economy, credit and three classes of ... -
Non-Linear Dynamics in Output, Real Exchange Rates and Real Money Balances: Norway, 1830-2003
(Working Papers;2/2005, Working paper, 2005)We characterise the behaviour of Norwegian output, the real exchange rate and real money balances over a period of almost two centuries. The empirical analysis is based on a new annual data set that has recently been ... -
Oil price drivers, geopolitical uncertainty and oil exporters’ currencies
(Working Paper;15/2019, Working paper, 2019)Empirical relationships between crude oil prices and exchange rates of oil exporting countries tend to vary over time. I use econometric models of the norwegian and canadian nominal exchange rates to investigate whether ... -
Output Gap, Monetary Policy Trade-Offs and Financial Frictions
(Working Papers;8/2017, Working paper, 2017)This paper investigates how the presence of financial frictions and financial shocks changes the definition and the estimated dynamics of the output gap in a New Keynesian model. Financial shocks absorb explanatory power ... -
Policy Analysis in Real Time Using IMF's Monetary Model
(Working Papers;10/2010, Working paper, 2010)We investigate to what extent estimated relationships of the IMF’s monetary model and their policy implications are sample dependent. This model constitutes the core of the IMF’s financial programming models for developing ... -
PPP Despite Real Shocks: An Empirical Analysis of the Norwegian Real Exchange Rate
(Working Papers;7/2000, Working paper, 2000)Despite the emerging consensus on the validity of purchasing power parity (PPP) between trading countries in the long run, empirical evidence in favour of the PPP theory is scarce in data predominantly exposed to real ... -
PPP in the Medium Run Despite Oil Shocks: The Case of Norway
(Working Papers;4/2002, Working paper, 2002)Existing studies generally reject purchasing power parity (PPP) on datasets from countries that have been affected by large real shocks, including Norway. However, we offer strong evidence of PPP between Norway and its ... -
Progress from Forecast Failure — the Norwegian Consumption Function
(Working Papers;10/2000, Working paper, 2000)After a forecast failure, a respecification is usually necessary to account for the data ex post, in which case there is a gain in knowledge as a result of the forecast failure. Using Norwegian consumption as an example, ... -
Regional US House Price Formation: One Model Fits All?
(Working Papers;8/2014, Working paper, 2014)Does a "one model fits all" approach apply to the econometric modeling of regional house price determination? To answer this question, we utilize a panel of 100 US Metropolitan Statistical Areas over the period 1980q1-2010q2. ... -
Rente og inflasjon
(Arbeidsnotater;2/2002, Working paper, 2002)Vi kartlegger årsakssammenhengen mellom pengemarkedsrenten og inflasjon gjennom en makroøkonometrisk modell. Modellen belyser også hvilke typer sjokk en har størst mulighet til å nøytralisere ved hjelp av moderate ...