Blar i Norges Banks vitenarkiv på emneord "JEL: C53"
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A Model of Bankruptcy Prediction
(Working Papers;10/2001, Working paper, 2001)In this thesis, a model of bankruptcy prediction conditional on financial statements is presented. Apart from giving a discussion on the suggested variables the issue of functional form is raised. The specification most ... -
A Survey of Econometric Methods for Mixed-Frequency Data
(Working Papers;6/2013, Working paper, 2013)The development of models for variables sampled at different frequencies has attracted substantial interest in the recent econometric literature. In this paper we provide an overview of the most common techniques, including ... -
Aggregate density forecast of models using disaggregate data - A copula approach
(Working paper;5/2022, Working paper, 2022)We propose a novel copula approach to producing density forecasts of economic aggregates combining models using disaggregate data. Our copula approach is more flexible compared to existing techniques, because it is applicable ... -
A bankruptcy probability model for assessing credit risk on corporate loans with automated variable selection
(Working paper;7/2022, Working paper, 2022)We propose an econometric model for predicting the share of bank debt held by bankrupt firms by combining a novel set of firm-level financial variables and macroeconomic indicators. Our firm-level data include payment ... -
Bayesian Nonparametric Calibration and Combination of Predictive Distributions
(Working Papers;3/2015, Working paper, 2015)We introduce a Bayesian approach to predictive density calibration and combination that accounts for parameter uncertainty and model set incompleteness through the use of random calibration functionals and random combination ... -
The Bias and Efficiency of the ECB Inflation Projections: a State Dependent Analysis
(Working Paper;1/2021, Working paper, 2021)We test for bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation forecasts using a confidential dataset of ECB macroeconomic quarterly projections. We investigate whether the properties of the forecasts depend on the level of inflation, ... -
Climate risk and commodity currencies
(Working Paper;18/2020, Working paper, 2020)The positive relationship between real exchange rates and natural resource income is well understood and studied. However, climate change and the transition to a lower-carbon economy now challenges this relationship. We ... -
Combination Schemes for Turning Point Predictions
(Working Papers;4/2012, Working paper, 2012)We propose new forecast combination schemes for predicting turning points of business cycles. The combination schemes deal with the forecasting performance of a given set of models and possibly providing better turning ... -
Combined Density Nowcasting in an Uncertain Economic Environment
(Working Papers;17/2014, Working paper, 2014)We introduce a Combined Density Nowcasting (CDN) approach to Dynamic Factor Models (DFM) that in a coherent way accounts for time-varying uncertainty of several model and data features in order to provide more accurate and ... -
Combining Forecast Densities from VARs with Uncertain Instabilities
(Working Papers;1/2008, Working paper, 2008)Clark and McCracken (2008) argue that combining real-time point forecasts from VARs of output, prices and interest rates improves point forecast accuracy in the presence of uncertain model instabilities. In this paper, we ... -
Combining Inflation Density Forecasts
(Working Papers;22/2008, Working paper, 2008)In this paper, we empirically evaluate competing approaches for combining inflation density forecasts in terms of Kullback-Leibler divergence. In particular, we apply a similar suite of models to four different data sets ... -
Combining Predictive Densities Using Bayesian Filtering with Applications to Us Economics Data
(Working Papers;29/2010, Working paper, 2010)Using a Bayesian framework this paper provides a multivariate combination approach to prediction based on a distributional state space representation of predictive densities from alternative models. In the proposed approach ... -
Combining VAR and DSGE Forecast Densities
(Working Papers;23/2009, Working paper, 2009)A popular macroeconomic forecasting strategy takes combinations across many models to hedge against instabilities of unknown timing; see (among others) Stock and Watson (2004), Clark and McCracken (2010), and Jore et al. ... -
Conditional Forecasting with DSGE Models - a Conditional Copula Approach
(Working Papers;4/2017, Working paper, 2017)DSGE models may be misspecified in many dimensions, which can affect their forecasting performance. To correct for these misspecifications we can apply conditional information from other models or judgment. Conditional ... -
Conditional Forecasts in DSGE Models
(Working Papers;7/2010, Working paper, 2010)New-generation DSGE models are sometimes misspecified in dimensions that matter for their forecasting performance. The paper suggests one way to improve the forecasts of a DSGE model using a conditioning information that ... -
Consumption and Population Age Structure
(Working Papers;22/2004, Working paper, 2004)In this paper the effects on aggregate consumption of changes in the age distribution of the population are analysed empirically. Economic theories predict that age influences individuals’ saving and consumption behaviour. ... -
Density Forecasts with Midas Models
(Working Papers;10/2014, Working paper, 2014)In this paper we derive a general parametric bootstrapping approach to compute density forecasts for various types of mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) regressions. We consider both classical and unrestricted MIDAS regressions ... -
Detecting Imbalances in House Prices: What Goes up Must Come Down?
(Working Papers;11/2016, Working paper, 2016)With the aid of econometric modeling, I investigate whether rapidly increasing house prices necessarily imply the existence of a bubble that will eventually burst. I consider four alternative econometric methods to construct ... -
Dissecting the 2007-2009 Real Estate Market Bust: Systematic Pricing Correction or Just a Housing Fad?
(Working Papers;22/2013, Working paper, 2013)We use Bayesian methods to estimate a multi-factor linear asset pricing model characterized by structural instability in factor loadings, idiosyncratic variances, and factor risk premia. We use such a framework to investigate ... -
Do Central Banks Respond Timely to Developments in the Global Economy?
(Working Papers;19/2016, Working paper, 2016)Our analysis suggests; they do not! To arrive at this conclusion we construct a real-time data set of interest rate projections from central banks in three small open economies; New Zealand, Norway, and Sweden, and analyze ...