Blar i Norges Banks vitenarkiv på emneord "JEL: C55"

Viser treff 1-7 av 7

    • Business cycle narratives 

      Larsen, Vegard Høghaug; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (Working papers;3/2018, Working paper, 2018)
      This article quantifies the epidemiology of media narratives relevant to business cycles in the US, Japan, and Europe (euro area). We do so by first constructing daily business cycle indexes computed on the basis of the ...

    • Do Central Banks Respond Timely to Developments in the Global Economy? 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders; Zahiri, Sepideh Khayati (Working Papers;19/2016, Working paper, 2016)
      Our analysis suggests; they do not! To arrive at this conclusion we construct a real-time data set of interest rate projections from central banks in three small open economies; New Zealand, Norway, and Sweden, and analyze ...

    • Forecasting Commodity Currencies: The Role of Fundamentals with Short-Lived Predictive Content 

      Foroni, Claudia; Ravazzolo, Francesco; Ribeiro, Pinho J. (Working Papers;14/2015, Working paper, 2015)
      Recent evidence highlights that commodity price changes exhibit a short-lived, yet robust contemporaneous effect on commodity currencies, which is mainly detectable in daily-frequency data. We use MIDAS models in a Bayesian ...

    • Forecasting GDP with Global Components. This Time Is Different 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Ravazzolo, Francesco; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (Working Papers;5/2015, Working paper, 2015)
      A long strand of literature has shown that the world has become more global. Yet, the recent Great Global Recession turned out to be hard to predict, with forecasters across the world committing large forecast errors. We ...

    • Narrative monetary policy surprises and the media 

      ter Ellen, Saskia; Larsen, Vegard H.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (Working Paper;19/2019, Working paper, 2019)
      We propose a method to quantify narratives from textual data in a structured manner, and identify what we label "narrative monetary policy surprises" as the change in economic media coverage that can be explained by central ...

    • News media vs. FRED-MD for macroeconomic forecasting 

      Ellingsen, Jon; Larsen, Vegard H.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (Working Paper;14/2020, Working paper, 2020)
      Using a unique dataset of 22.5 million news articles from the Dow Jones Newswires Archive, we perform an in depth real-time out-of-sample forecasting comparison study with one of the most widely used data sets in the newer ...

    • The shale oil boom and the U.S. economy: Spillovers and time-varying effects 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Zhulanova, Julia (Working Paper;14/2019, Working paper, 2019)
      We analyze if the transmission of oil price shocks on the U.S. economy has changed with the shale oil boom. To do so, we put forward a framework that allows for spillovers between industries and learning by doing (LBD) ...