Blar i Norges Banks vitenarkiv på emneord "density combination"

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    • Dynamic Predictive Density Combinations for Large Data Sets in Economics and Finance 

      Casarin, Roberto; Grassi, Stefano; Ravazzolo, Francesco; van Dijk, Herman K. (Working Papers;12/2015, Working paper, 2015)
      A Bayesian nonparametric predictive model is introduced to construct time-varying weighted combinations of a large set of predictive densities. A clustering mechanism allocates these densities into a smaller number of ...

    • Evaluating Ensemble Density Combination - Forecasting GDP and Inflation 

      Gerdrup, Karsten R.; Jore, Anne Sofie; Smith, Christie; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (Working Papers;19/2009, Working paper, 2009)
      Forecast combination has become popular in central banks as a means to improve forecasts and to alleviate the risk of selecting poor models. However, if a model suite is populated with many similar models, then the weight ...

    • Macro Modelling with Many Models 

      Bache, Ida Wolden; Mitchell, James; Ravazzolo, Francesco; Vahey, Shaun P. (Working Papers;15/2009, Working paper, 2009)
      We argue that the next generation of macro modellers at Inflation Targeting central banks should adapt a methodology from the weather forecasting literature known as `ensemble modelling'. In this approach, uncertainty about ...

    • Nowcasting GDP in Real-Time: A Density Combination Approach 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Gerdrup, Karsten R.; Jore, Anne Sofie; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (Working Papers;11/2011, Working paper, 2011)
      In this paper we use U.S. real-time vintage data and produce combined density nowcasts for quarterly GDP growth from a system of three commonly used model classes. The density nowcasts are combined in two steps. First, a ...

    • Short-Term Forecasting of GDP and Inflation in Real-Time : Norges Bank’s System for Averaging Models 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Gerdrup, Karsten R.; Jore, Anne Sofie (Staff Memo;9/2011, Working paper, 2011)
      In this paper we describe Norges Bank's system for averaging models (SAM) which produces model-based density forecasts for Norwegian Mainland GDP and inflation. We combine the forecasts from three main types of models ...