Blar i Norges Banks vitenarkiv på emneord "model uncertainty"

Viser treff 1-6 av 6

    • Model Selection for Monetary Policy Analysis – Importance of Empirical Validity 

      Akram, Q. Farooq; Nymoen, Ragnar (Working Papers;13/2006, Working paper, 2006)
      We investigate the importance of employing a valid model for monetary policy analysis. Specifically, we investigate the economic significance of differences in specification and empirical validity of models. We consider ...

    • Model Specification and Inflation Forecast Uncertainty 

      Bårdsen, Gunnar; Jansen, Eilev S.; Nymoen, Ragnar (Working Papers;6/2000, Working paper, 2000)
      Three classes of inflation models are discussed: Standard Phillips curves, New Keynesian Phillips curves and Incomplete Competition models. Their relative merits in explaining and forecasting inflation are investigated ...

    • Quantifying time-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Cross, Jamie L.; van Dijk, Herman K. (Working Paper;3/2021, Working paper, 2021)
      We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil using a combination of probabilistic individual model forecasts. Our combination method extends earlier ...

    • Real-Time Inflation Forecasting in a Changing World 

      Groen, Jan J. J.; Paap, Richard; Ravazzolo, Francesco (Working Papers;16/2009, Working paper, 2009)
      This paper revisits inflation forecasting using reduced form Phillips curve forecasts, i.e., inflation forecasts using activity and expectations variables. We propose a Phillips curve-type model that results from averaging ...

    • Robustifying Optimal Monetary Policy Using Simple Rules as Cross-Checks 

      Ilbas, Pelin; Røisland, Øistein; Sveen, Tommy (Working Papers;22/2012, Working paper, 2012)
      There are two main approaches to modelling monetary policy; simple instrument rules and optimal policy. We propose an alternative that combines the two by extending the loss function with a term penalizing deviations from ...

    • Simple Monetary Policy Rules and Exchange Rate Uncertainty 

      Leitemo, Kai; Söderström, Ulf (Working Papers;6/2001, Working paper, 2001)
      We analyze the performance and robustness of some common simple rules for monetary policy in a New-Keynesian open economy model under different assumptions about the exchange rate model. Adding the exchange rate to an ...