Blar i Norges Banks vitenarkiv på emneord "output gap"

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    • Estimating the Output Gap in Real Time: A Factor Model Approach 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Trovik, Tørres G. (Working Papers;23/2008, Working paper, 2008)
      An approximate dynamic factor model can substantially improve the reliability of real time output gap estimates. The model extracts a common component from macroeconomic indicators, which reduces errors in the gap due to ...

    • Forecasting Inflation with an Uncertain Output Gap 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Brubakk, Leif; Jore, Anne Sofie (Working Papers;2/2006, Working paper, 2006)
      The output gap is a crucial concept in the monetary policy framework, indicating demand pressure that generates inflation. However, its definition and estimation raise a number of theoretical and empirical questions. This ...

    • Norges Bank Output Gap Estimates: Forecasting Properties, Reliability and Cyclical Sensitivity 

      Furlanetto, Francesco; Hagelund, Kåre; Hansen, Frank; Robstad, Ørjan (Working Paper;7/2020, Working paper, 2020)
      This paper documents the suite of models used by Norges Bank to estimate the output gap. The models are estimated using data on GDP, unemployment, inflation, wages, investment, house prices and credit. We evaluate the ...

    • Output Gap, Monetary Policy Trade-Offs and Financial Frictions 

      Furlanetto, Francesco; Gelain, Paolo; Sanjani, Marzie Taheri (Working Papers;8/2017, Working paper, 2017)
      This paper investigates how the presence of financial frictions and financial shocks changes the definition and the estimated dynamics of the output gap in a New Keynesian model. Financial shocks absorb explanatory power ...

    • The Natural Real Interest Rate and the Output Gap in the Euro Area: A Joint Estimation 

      Garnier, Julien; Wilhelmsen, Bjørn-Roger (Working Papers;14/2005, Working paper, 2005)
      The notion of a natural real rate of interest, due to Wicksell (1936), is widely used in current central bank research. The idea is that there exists a level at which the real interest rate would be compatible with output ...