• Financial imbalances and medium-term growth-at-risk in Norway 

      Arbatli-Saxegaard, Elif C.; Gerdrup, Karsten R.; Johansen, Rønnaug M. (Staff Memo;5/2020, Working paper, 2020)
      We examine how measures of financial imbalances affect macroeconomic tail risks over the medium-term in Norway and in other advanced economies. We use a broad set of financial indicators to capture cyclical systemic risk ...
    • The impact of financial shocks on the forecast distribution of output and inflation 

      Forni, Mario; Gambetti, Luca; Maffei-Faccioli, Nicolò; Sala, Luca (Working paper;3/2023, Working paper, 2023)
      Financial shocks represent a major driver of fluctuations in tail risk, defined as the 5th percentile of the forecast distributions of output and inflation. Since the variance and the asymmetry of the forecast distributions ...
    • Quantifying macroeconomic uncertainty in Norway 

      Bowe, Frida; Kirkeby, Sara J.; Lindalen, Ingvild H.; Matsen, Kristine A.; Meyer, Sara S.; Robstad, Ørjan (Staff Memo;13/2023, Working paper, 2023)
      This paper presents a framework for quantifying uncertainty around point forecasts for GDP, inflation and house prices in Norway. The framework combines quantile regressions using a broad set of uncertainty indicators with ...