Blar i Norges Banks vitenarkiv på emneord "turning points"
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Combination Schemes for Turning Point Predictions
(Working Papers;4/2012, Working paper, 2012)We propose new forecast combination schemes for predicting turning points of business cycles. The combination schemes deal with the forecasting performance of a given set of models and possibly providing better turning ... -
Forecasting Recessions in Real Time
(Working Papers;2/2014, Working paper, 2014)We review several methods to define and forecast classical business cycle turning points in Norway. In the paper we compare the Bry - Boschan rule (BB) with a Markov Switching model (MS), using alternative vintages of ... -
Identification and Real-Time Forecasting of Norwegian Business Cycles
(Working Papers;9/2015, Working paper, 2015)We de fine and forecast classical business cycle turning points for the Norwegian economy. When defining reference business cycles, we compare a univariate and a multivariate Bry-Boschan approach with univariate Markov-switching ...