• Agreeing on Disagreement: Heterogeneity or Uncertainty? 

      ter Ellen, Saskia; Verschoor, Willem F.C.; Zwinkels, Remco C.J. (Working Papers;4/2016, Working paper, 2016)
      Disagreement is used as a measure of both investor heterogeneity and uncertainty. We study whether disagreement captures heterogeneity or uncertainty for the foreign exchange market. We do so by relating disagreement to ...
    • Combining Forecast Densities from VARs with Uncertain Instabilities 

      Jore, Anne Sofie; Mitchell, James; Vahey, Shaun P. (Working Papers;1/2008, Working paper, 2008)
      Clark and McCracken (2008) argue that combining real-time point forecasts from VARs of output, prices and interest rates improves point forecast accuracy in the presence of uncertain model instabilities. In this paper, we ...
    • Components of Uncertainty 

      Larsen, Vegard Høghaug (Working Papers;5/2017, Working paper, 2017)
      Uncertainty is acknowledged to be a source of economic fluctuations. But, does the type of uncertainty matter for the economy's response to an uncertainty shock? This paper offers a novel identification strategy to disentangle ...
    • Economic Uncertainty and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Natvik, Gisle James; Sola, Sergio (Working Papers;17/2013, Working paper, 2013)
      This paper explores if economic uncertainty alters the macroeconomic influence of monetary policy. We consider several measures of U.S. economic uncertainty, and estimate their interaction effects with monetary policy ...
    • Identification of Financial Factors in Economic Fluctuations 

      Furlanetto, Francesco; Ravazzolo, Francesco; Sarferaz, Samad (Working Papers;9/2014, Working paper, 2014)
      We estimate demand, supply, monetary, investment and financial shocks in a VAR identified with a minimum set of sign restrictions on US data. We find that financial shocks are major drivers of fluctuations in output, stock ...
    • The impact of financial shocks on the forecast distribution of output and inflation 

      Forni, Mario; Gambetti, Luca; Maffei-Faccioli, Nicolò; Sala, Luca (Working paper;3/2023, Working paper, 2023)
      Financial shocks represent a major driver of fluctuations in tail risk, defined as the 5th percentile of the forecast distributions of output and inflation. Since the variance and the asymmetry of the forecast distributions ...
    • Oil price drivers, geopolitical uncertainty and oil exporters’ currencies 

      Akram, Q. Farooq (Working Paper;15/2019, Working paper, 2019)
      Empirical relationships between crude oil prices and exchange rates of oil exporting countries tend to vary over time. I use econometric models of the norwegian and canadian nominal exchange rates to investigate whether ...
    • Why Do People Give Less Weight to Advice the Further It Is from Their Initial Opinion? 

      Ravazzolo, Francesco; Røisland, Øistein (Working Papers;4/2010, Working paper, 2010)
      Experimental studies on decision making based on advice received from others find that the weight put on the advice is negatively related to the distance between the advice and the decisionmaker's initial opinion. In this ...