• Boom or Gloom? Examining the Dutch Disease in Two-Speed Economies 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (Working Papers;12/2014, Working paper, 2014)
      Traditional studies of the Dutch disease do not account for productivity spillovers between the booming resource sector and other domestic sectors. We put forward a simple theory model that allows for such spillovers. We ...
    • Do Central Banks Respond Timely to Developments in the Global Economy? 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders; Zahiri, Sepideh Khayati (Working Papers;19/2016, Working paper, 2016)
      Our analysis suggests; they do not! To arrive at this conclusion we construct a real-time data set of interest rate projections from central banks in three small open economies; New Zealand, Norway, and Sweden, and analyze ...
    • Do Central Banks Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? a Markov-Switching Structural Investigation 

      Alstadheim, Ragna; Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Maih, Junior (Working Papers;24/2013, Working paper, 2013)
      Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? According to Lubik and Schorfheide (2007) who estimate structural general equilibrium models with monetary policy rules, the answer is "Yes, some do". However, their ...
    • Does Forecast Combination Improve Norges Bank Inflation Forecasts? 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Gerdrup, Karsten R.; Jore, Anne Sofie; Smith, Christie; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (Working Papers;1/2009, Working paper, 2009)
      We develop a system that provides model-based forecasts for inflation in Norway. Forecasts are recursively evaluated from 1999 to 2008. The performance of the models over this period is then used to derive weights that are ...
    • Dutch disease dynamics reconsidered 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders; Torvik, Ragnar (Working papers;2018/1, Working paper, 2018)
      In this paper we develop the first model to incorporate the dynamic productivity consequences of both the spending effect and the resource movement effect of oil abundance. We show that doing so dramatically alters the ...
    • Estimating the Natural Rates in a Simple New Keynesian Framework 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Leitemo, Kai; Maih, Junior (Working Papers;10/2007, Working paper, 2007)
      The time-varying natural rate of interest and output and the implied medium term inflation target for the US economy are estimated over the period 1983-2005. The estimation is conducted within the New-Keynesian framework ...
    • Forecasting GDP with Global Components. This Time Is Different 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Ravazzolo, Francesco; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (Working Papers;5/2015, Working paper, 2015)
      A long strand of literature has shown that the world has become more global. Yet, the recent Great Global Recession turned out to be hard to predict, with forecasters across the world committing large forecast errors. We ...
    • Forecasting Inflation with an Uncertain Output Gap 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Brubakk, Leif; Jore, Anne Sofie (Working Papers;2/2006, Working paper, 2006)
      The output gap is a crucial concept in the monetary policy framework, indicating demand pressure that generates inflation. However, its definition and estimation raise a number of theoretical and empirical questions. This ...
    • How Does Monetary Policy Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? New International Evidence 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Halvorsen, Jørn Inge (Working Papers;15/2008, Working paper, 2008)
      This paper analyzes how monetary policy responds to exchange rate movements in open economies, paying particular attention to the two-way interaction between monetary policy and exchange rate movements. We address this ...
    • Identifying the Interdependence Between Us Monetary Policy and the Stock Market 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Leitemo, Kai (Working Papers;4/2008, Working paper, 2008)
      We estimate the interdependence between US monetary policy and the S&P 500 using structural VAR methodology. A solution is proposed to the simultaneity problem of identifying monetary and stock price shocks by using a ...
    • Improving and Evaluating Short Term Forecasts at the Norges Bank 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Jore, Anne Sofie; Smith, Christie; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (Staff Memo;4/2008, Working paper, 2008)
      In 2006 the Norges Bank initiated a project to improve its short term forecasts. The current phase of the project is tasked with developing a system that provides model-based forecasts for gross domestic product and consumer ...
    • Inflation expectations and the pass-through of oil prices 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Cross, Jamie L. (Working Paper;5/2020, Working paper, 2020)
      Do inflation expectations and the associated pass-through of oil price shocks depend on demand and supply conditions underlying the global market for crude oil? We answer this question with a novel structural vector ...
    • Is monetary policy always effective? Incomplete interest rate pass-through in a DSGE model 

      Binning, Andrew; Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Maih, Junior (Working Paper;22/2019, Working paper, 2019)
      We estimate a regime-switching DSGE model with a banking sector to explain incomplete and asymmetric interest rate pass-through, especially in the presence of a binding zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint. The model is ...
    • Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Interactions in a Small Open Economy 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C. (Working Papers;16/2005, Working paper, 2005)
      This paper analyses the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy in a small open economy like Norway through structural VARs, paying particular attention to the interdependence between the monetary policy stance and ...
    • Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Overshooting: Dornbusch Was Right After All 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C. (Working Papers;9/2009, Working paper, 2009)
      Dornbusch’s exchange rate overshooting hypothesis is a central building block in international macroeconomics. Yet, empirical studies of monetary policy have typically found exchange rate effects that are inconsistent with ...
    • Monetary Policy and the Illusionary Exchange Rate Puzzle 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C. (Working Papers;11/2005, Working paper, 2005)
      Dornbusch’s exchange rate overshooting hypothesis is a central building block in international macroeconomics. Yet, empirical studies of monetary policy have typically found exchange rate effects that are inconsistent with ...
    • Oil and Macroeconomic (In)Stability 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Larsen, Vegard Høghaug; Maih, Junior (Working Papers;12/2016, Working paper, 2016)
      We analyze the role of oil price volatility in reducing U.S. macroeconomic instability. Using a Markov Switching Rational Expectation New-Keynesian model we revisit the timing of the Great Moderation and the sources of ...
    • Oil Price Shocks and Stock Market Booms in an Oil Exporting Country 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C. (Working Papers;16/2008, Working paper, 2008)
      This paper analyses the effects of oil price shocks on stock returns in Norway, an oil exporting country, highlighting the transmission channels of oil prices for macroeconomic behaviour. To capture the interaction between ...
    • The shale oil boom and the U.S. economy: Spillovers and time-varying effects 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Zhulanova, Julia (Working Paper;14/2019, Working paper, 2019)
      We analyze if the transmission of oil price shocks on the U.S. economy has changed with the shale oil boom. To do so, we put forward a framework that allows for spillovers between industries and learning by doing (LBD) ...
    • Supply Flexibility in the Shale Patch: Evidence from North Dakota 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Nordvik, Frode Martin; Rohrer, Maximilian (Working Papers;9/2017, Working paper, 2017)
      We question whether supply flexibility in oil production depends on the type of extraction technology. In particular, we ask if shale oil producers respond to price incentives when producing oil or completing new wells. ...