Browsing Norges Banks vitenarkiv by Author "Aastveit, Knut Are"
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Asymmetric effects of monetary policy in regional housing markets
Aastveit, Knut Are; Anundsen, André K. (Working paper;25/2017, Working paper, 2017)The responsiveness of house prices to monetary policy shocks depends both on the nature of the shock – expansionary versus contractionary – and on city-specific housing supply elasticities. We test and find supporting ... -
Changing Supply Elasticities and Regional Housing Booms
Aastveit, Knut Are; Albuquerque, Bruno; Anundsen, André (Working Paper;8/2019, Working paper, 2019)Recent developments in US house prices mirror those of the 1996-2006 boom, but the recovery in construction activity has been weak. Using data for 254 US metropolitan areas, we show hat housing supply elasticities have ... -
Combined Density Nowcasting in an Uncertain Economic Environment
Aastveit, Knut Are; Ravazzolo, Francesco; van Dijk, Herman K. (Working Papers;17/2014, Working paper, 2014)We introduce a Combined Density Nowcasting (CDN) approach to Dynamic Factor Models (DFM) that in a coherent way accounts for time-varying uncertainty of several model and data features in order to provide more accurate and ... -
Density Forecasts with Midas Models
Aastveit, Knut Are; Foroni, Claudia; Ravazzolo, Francesco (Working Papers;10/2014, Working paper, 2014)In this paper we derive a general parametric bootstrapping approach to compute density forecasts for various types of mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) regressions. We consider both classical and unrestricted MIDAS regressions ... -
Economic Uncertainty and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy
Aastveit, Knut Are; Natvik, Gisle James; Sola, Sergio (Working Papers;17/2013, Working paper, 2013)This paper explores if economic uncertainty alters the macroeconomic influence of monetary policy. We consider several measures of U.S. economic uncertainty, and estimate their interaction effects with monetary policy ... -
Estimating the Output Gap in Real Time: A Factor Model Approach
Aastveit, Knut Are; Trovik, Tørres G. (Working Papers;23/2008, Working paper, 2008)An approximate dynamic factor model can substantially improve the reliability of real time output gap estimates. The model extracts a common component from macroeconomic indicators, which reduces errors in the gap due to ... -
Forecasting Recessions in Real Time
Aastveit, Knut Are; Jore, Anne Sofie; Ravazzolo, Francesco (Working Papers;2/2014, Working paper, 2014)We review several methods to define and forecast classical business cycle turning points in Norway. In the paper we compare the Bry - Boschan rule (BB) with a Markov Switching model (MS), using alternative vintages of ... -
Has the Fed Responded to House and Stock Prices? : a Time-Varying Analysis
Aastveit, Knut Are; Furlanetto, Francesco; Loria, Francesca (Working Papers;1/2017, Working paper, 2017)In this paper we use a structural VAR model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility to investigate whether the Federal Reserve has responded systematically to asset prices and whether this response has changed ... -
Have Standard VARs Remained Stable Since the Crisis?
Aastveit, Knut Are; Carriero, Andrea; Clark, Todd E.; Marcellino, Massimiliano (Working Papers;13/2014, Working paper, 2014)Small or medium-scale VARs are commonly used in applied macroeconomics for forecasting and evaluating the shock transmission mechanism. This requires the VAR parameters to be stable over the evaluation and forecast sample, ... -
Identification and Real-Time Forecasting of Norwegian Business Cycles
Aastveit, Knut Are; Jore, Anne Sofie; Ravazzolo, Francesco (Working Papers;9/2015, Working paper, 2015)We de fine and forecast classical business cycle turning points for the Norwegian economy. When defining reference business cycles, we compare a univariate and a multivariate Bry-Boschan approach with univariate Markov-switching ... -
Inflation expectations and the pass-through of oil prices
Aastveit, Knut Are; Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Cross, Jamie L. (Working Paper;5/2020, Working paper, 2020)Do inflation expectations and the associated pass-through of oil price shocks depend on demand and supply conditions underlying the global market for crude oil? We answer this question with a novel structural vector ... -
Mortgage regulation and financial vulnerability at the household level
Aastveit, Knut Are; Juelsrud, Ragnar Enger; Wold, Ella Getz (Working Paper;6/2020, Working paper, 2020)We evaluate the impact of mortgage regulation on credit volumes, household balance sheets and the reaction to adverse economic shocks. Using a comprehensive dataset of all housing transactions in Norway matched with buyers' ... -
Multivariate Bayesian Predictive Synthesis in Macroeconomic Forecasting
McAlinn, Kenichiro; Aastveit, Knut Are; Nakajima, Jouchi; West, Mike (Working Paper;2/2019, Working paper, 2019)We present new methodology and a case study in use of a class of Bayesian predictive synthesis (BPS) models for multivariate time series forecasting. This extends the foundational BPS framework to the multivariate setting, ... -
Norges Bank's Management of Cash Inventories
Aastveit, Knut Are; Kjørstad, Thomas (Journal article, 2006)In order to fulfil its obligations regarding the supply of notes and coins, Norges Bank needs to hold cash inventories. The level of inventories must be considered with regard to ordinary and extraordinary circumstances. ... -
Norges Banks lagerstyring av kontanter
Aastveit, Knut Are; Kjørstad, Thomas (Journal article, 2005)For å kunne ivareta sin seddel- og myntforsyningsplikt har Norges Bank behov for å holde et lager av kontanter. Hvor stort dette lageret skal være, må vurderes både ut fra en normal situasjon og mer ekstraordinære situasjoner. ... -
Nowcasting GDP in Real-Time: A Density Combination Approach
Aastveit, Knut Are; Gerdrup, Karsten R.; Jore, Anne Sofie; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (Working Papers;11/2011, Working paper, 2011)In this paper we use U.S. real-time vintage data and produce combined density nowcasts for quarterly GDP growth from a system of three commonly used model classes. The density nowcasts are combined in two steps. First, a ... -
Nowcasting Norwegian GDP: The Role of Asset Prices in a Small Open Economy
Aastveit, Knut Are; Trovik, Tørres G. (Working Papers;9/2007, Working paper, 2007)This paper finds that asset prices on Oslo Stock Exchange is the single most important block of data to improve estimates of current quarter GDP in Norway. Other important blocks of data are labor market data and industrial ... -
Nowcasting Norwegian household consumption with debit card transaction data
Aastveit, Knut Are; Fastbø, Tuva Marie; Granziera, Eleonora; Paulsen, Kenneth Sæterhagen; Torstensen, Kjersti Næss (Working Paper;17/2020, Working paper, 2020)We use a novel data set covering all domestic debit card transactions in physical terminals by Norwegian households, to nowcast quarterly Norwegian household consumption. These card payments data are free of sampling errors ... -
Oil Price Shocks and Monetary Policy in a Data-Rich Environment
Aastveit, Knut Are (Working Papers;10/2013, Working paper, 2013)This paper examines the impact of different types of oil price shocks on the U.S. economy, using a factor-augmented VAR (FAVAR) approach. The results indicate that when examining the effects of oil price shocks, it is ... -
On the Importance of Foreign Factors for the Norwegian Economy
Aastveit, Knut Are; Furlanetto, Francesco; Ravazzolo, Francesco (Economic Commentaries;3/2013, Others, 2013)The objective of this note is to describe two recent studies that both quantify the importance of foreign factors for the Norwegian economy by using time series econometric models. Furlanetto, Ravazzolo and Sarferaz (2013) ...