Norges Bank's Management of Cash Inventories

Abstract

In order to fulfil its obligations regarding the supply of notes and coins, Norges Bank needs to hold cash inventories. The level of inventories must be considered with regard to ordinary and extraordinary circumstances. In order to predict demand and reduce the uncertainty concerning inventory requirements, sound models that can enhance the understanding of changes in cash circulation are required. The explanatory variables for cash demand can be divided into three different groups: general macro-economic variables, variables that express the competition between cash and deposits, and variables that may provide insight into the illegal economy. A newly developed model for cash demand shows that demand for actual cash is dependent on real consumption at the point of sale, bank interest rates and a negative linear trend that captures developments in the payment system, in addition to the historical value of real cash. The model-based forecasts show that demand for cash will increase in the next quarters before decreasing towards the end of 2006 and further through 2007.