• Monetary policy and the exchange rate in Norway 

  Mæhlum, Mathis (Staff Memo;3/2025, Working paper, 2025)

• Modeller for å anslå årslønnsveksten 

  Matsen, Kristine Aunvåg (Staff Memo;4/2025, Working paper, 2025)

• The Norwegian Taylor rule 

  Lindalen, Ingvild Hagen; Maffei-Faccioli, Nicolò (Staff Memo;5/2025, Working paper, 2025)

  This paper estimates various Taylor rules for Norway based on the observed money market rate (Nibor). We begin by examining standard Taylor rules from the literature, applying them to Norwegian data to assess their fit. ...

• Re-visiting the relationship between oil prices and monetary policy 

  Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Cross, Jamie L.; Hölz, Jonas (Working paper;4/2025, Working paper, 2025)

  This paper examines how central banks respond to supply-side shocks and investigates the trade-offs they face in stabilizing inflation and output. To do so we develop a dual external instrument proxy structural vector ...

• Trend inflation in Japanese pre-2000s : a Markov-switching DSGE 

  Kato, Ryo; Maih, Junior; Nishihama, Shin-Ichi (Working paper;3/2025, Working paper, 2025)

  In Japan, the inflation rate declined to near-zero, whereas the monetary policy faced a zero lower bound (ZLB) in the 1990s. We examine whether trend inflation had fallen to near-zero prior to the ZLB. To achieve this, we ...

• Likviditetsrisiko i banksystemet : en ny modell og en stresstest med et cyberscenario 

  Erard, Monique; Haugen, Charlotte Høeg; Winje, Hanna (Staff Memo;2/2025, Working paper, 2025)

• Relationship lending and monetary policy pass-through 

  Cao, Jin; Dubuis, Pierre; Liaudinskas, Karolis (Working paper;1/2025, Working paper, 2025)

  This paper investigates the link between bank-firm lending relationships and monetary policy pass-through, focusing on episodes of low interest rates. Using administrative tax and bank supervisory data ranging from 1997 ...

• Buy now pay (less) later : leveraging private BNPL data in consumer banking 

  Laudenbach, Christine; Molin, Elin; Roszbach, Kasper; Sondershaus, Talina (Working paper;2/2025, Working paper, 2025)

  Buy Now, Pay Later loans (BNPL) are an increasingly popular way to finance small-ticket purchases. We provide new evidence on how BNPL influences regular bank credit markets, benefiting both lenders and borrowers through ...

• The interest sensitivity of consumption and investment : evidence from Norway 

  Bowe, Frida; Brubakk, Leif; Juelsrud, Ragnar; Meyer, Sara Skjeggestad; Njølstad, Erlend; Åstebøl, Magnus A. H. (Staff Memo;1/2025, Working paper, 2025)

  We use narrative monetary policy shocks and local projections to estimate the impact of monetary policy on consumption and investment. We use granular data to investigate how the response varies across consumption categories, ...

• Firms' transition to lower greenhouse gas emissions and the risk in Norwegian banks 

  Hjelseth, Ida Nervik; Johansen, Rønnaug Melle; Solheim, Haakon (Staff Memo;3/2024, Working paper, 2024)

  For a period of time, climate change could increase firms’ costs and reduce the value of their assets. If we assume that the composition of banks’ lending remains constant, the increase in costs could increase the banks’ ...

• Estimating the elasticity of intertemporal substitution using dividend tax news shocks 

  Holm, Martin B.; Jamilov, Rustam; Jasinski, Marek; Nenov, Plamen T. (Working paper;17/2024, Working paper, 2024)

  This paper studies the spending response to news about a dividend tax reform to estimate the elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS). The Norwegian dividend tax reform was proposed in 2003, announced in 2004, and ...

• Rewiring supply chains through uncoordinated climate policy 

  Benincasa, Emanuela; Carradori, Olimpia; Ferreira, Miguel; Garcia-Appendini, Emilia (Working paper;18/2024, Working paper, 2024)

  We show that climate transition risks can significantly disrupt supply chain networks. Specifically, suppliers affected by the California cap-and-trade program are more likely to lose customer relationships and less likely ...

• The cash-flow channel of monetary policy - evidence from billions of transactions 

  Ahn, SeHyoun; Galaasen, Sigurd Mølster; Mæhlum, Mathis (Working paper;20/2024, Working paper, 2024)

  We present novel findings on the impact of monetary policy on consumer spending behavior using a newly assembled high-frequency household expenditure panel. Leveraging comprehensive weekly electronic transaction-level data ...

• Macroeconomic effects of the gender revolution 

  Bergholt, Drago; Fosso, Luca; Furlanetto, Francesco (Working paper;19/2024, Working paper, 2024)

  U.S. labor market data exhibit a major, secular decline in the employment and wage gaps between males and females. In this paper, we identify the underlying, structural forces and quantify the spillover from this gender ...

• Piecing the puzzle : real exchange rates and long-run fundamentals 

  Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Brubakk, Leif; Maffei-Faccioli, Nicolò (Working paper;21/2024, Working paper, 2024)

  This paper examines the structural determinants of real exchange rates, emphasizing the persistent low-frequency movements that traditional models, such as Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP), ...

• Stock market wealth and entrepreneurship 

  Chodorow-Reich, Gabriel; Nenov, Plamen T.; Santos, Vitor; Simsek, Alp (Working paper;16/2024, Working paper, 2024)

  We use data on stock portfolios of Norwegian households to show that stock market wealth increases entrepreneurship by relaxing financial constraints. Our research design isolates idiosyncratic variation in household-level ...

• Mitigating the impact of fuel subsidy removal in an oil-producing emerging economy 

  Maih, Junior; Omotosho, Babatunde S.; Yang, Bo (Working paper;15/2024, Working paper, 2024)

  This paper examines the implications of fuel subsidy removal in an oil-producing economy, focusing on the central bank’s response to volatile oil prices. Using a Markov-switching dynamic stochastic general equilibrium ...

• Quantile combination : an application to US GDP growth forecasts 

  Aastveit, Knut Are; ter Ellen, Saskia; Mantoan, Giulia (Working paper;14/2024, Working paper, 2024)

  We propose an easy-to-implement framework for combining quantile forecasts, applied to forecasting GDP growth. Using quantile regressions, our combination scheme assigns weights to individual forecasts from different ...

• Monetary policy shock, financial frictions and heterogeneous firms 

  Cao, Jin; Hamano, Masashige; Maih, Junior (Working paper;13/2024, Working paper, 2024)

  This paper examines the influence of financial constraints on the transmission of monetary policy shocks across heterogeneous firms. To this end, we develop a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model incorporating ...

• Unveiling inflation: oil shocks, supply chain pressures, and expectations 

  Aastveit, Knut Are; Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Cross, Jamie L.; Kalstad, Helene Olsen (Working paper;12/2024, Working paper, 2024)

  This paper demonstrates that inflation expectations have acted as significant amplifiers of recent global demand and supply shocks, thereby playing a crucial role in maintaining inflation at relatively high levels. This ...

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