• Boligmarkedet i pandemiåret 2020 

  Lindquist, Kjersti-Gro; Mæhlum, Sverre; Vatne, Bjørn Helge; Wold, Ella Getz (Staff Memo;6/2021, Working paper, 2021)

  Til tross for pandemien var boligprisveksten høy gjennom store deler av 2020. Lavere utlånsrenter, endringer i boligpreferanser og begrenset tilbud av nye boliger har bidratt til økt prispress, især i Oslo. Våre analyser ...

• House price prediction using daily news data 

  Kirkeby, Sara Jahr; Larsen, Vegard Høghaug (Staff Memo;5/2021, Working paper, 2021)

  We investigate whether information from news articles could improve predictions of house price inflation at a short forecast horizon. The Covid-19 pandemic led to a shutdown of the Norwegian economy on 12 March 2020. Large ...

• Peer Monitoring vs. Search Costs in the Interbank Market: Evidence from Payment Flow Data in Norway 

  Findreng, Jon H. (Working Paper;2/2021, Working paper, 2021)

  Bilateral payment flows between banks may provide private information about a borrowing bank’s liquidity position. This paper analyses whether private information on the bilateral payment flow of central bank reserves ...

• Quantifying time-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil 

  Aastveit, Knut Are; Cross, Jamie L.; van Dijk, Herman K. (Working Paper;3/2021, Working paper, 2021)

  We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil using a combination of probabilistic individual model forecasts. Our combination method extends earlier ...

• Estimating firms’ bank-switching costs 

  Liaudinskas, Karolis; Grigaitė, Kristina (Working Paper;4/2021, Working paper, 2021)

  We explore Lithuanian credit register data and two bank closures to provide a novel estimate of firms’ bank-switching costs and a novel identification of the hold-up problem. We show that when a distressed bank’s closure ...

• The Bias and Efficiency of the ECB Inflation Projections: a State Dependent Analysis 

  Granziera, Eleonora; Jalasjoki, Pirkka; Palovita, Maritta (Working Paper;1/2021, Working paper, 2021)

  We test for bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation forecasts using a confidential dataset of ECB macroeconomic quarterly projections. We investigate whether the properties of the forecasts depend on the level of inflation, ...

• Government support schemes during the Covid-19 pandemic have had a dampening effect on corporate credit risk 

  Hjelseth, Ida Nervik; Solheim, Haakon; Vatne, Bjørn H. (Staff Memo;3/2021, Working paper, 2021)

  After the Covid-19 pandemic broke out, the authorities have introduced a number of measures aimed at the business sector. Support has largely been given to the sectors hardest hit by the pandemic and measures to contain ...

• Distributional effects of monetary policy in Norway 

  Mimir, Yasin; Mæhlum, Mathis; Torstensen, Kjersti Næss (Staff Memo;4/2021, Working paper, 2021)

  We quantify the short-term effects of both non-systematic and systematic monetary policy on the income and wealth distribution in Norway, and measure the relative importance of the various channels. An expansionary monetary ...

• Myndighetenes støtteordninger under koronapandemien har dempet kredittrisikoen i foretakene 

  Hjelseth, Ida Nervik; Solheim, Haakon; Vatne, Bjørn H. (Staff Memo;3/2021, Working paper, 2021)

  Etter at koronapandemien brøt ut, har myndighetene innført en rekke tiltak rettet mot næringslivet. Støtten har i stor grad blitt gitt til de næringene som er hardest rammet av pandemien og smitteverntiltakene. En betydelig ...

• Langvarige konsekvenser i arbeidsmarkedet 

  Ellingsen, Nicolai; Galaasen, Sigurd Mølster (Staff Memo;1/2021, Working paper, 2021)

  Vi studerer langvarig sysselsettingskonsekvenser av dype økonomiske nedgangstider ved å utnytte den geografiske variasjonen i lokale økonomiske forhold i etterkant av oljepriskollapsen i 2014. Vi dokumenterer en negativ ...

• Bond market fire sales and turbulence in the Norwegian FX market in March 2020 

  Alstadheim, Ragna; Nordal, Kjell Bjørn; Syrstad, Olav; ter Ellen, Saskia; Wassas, May-Iren Walstad (Staff Memo;2/2021, Working paper, 2021)

  The world witnessed a meltdown in financial markets in March 2020 as the Covid-19 pandemic hit the global economy. In this memo we document how the turbulence affected Norwegian financial markets. We describe possible ...

• Climate risk and commodity currencies 

  Kapfhammer, Felix; Larsen, Vegard H.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (Working Paper;18/2020, Working paper, 2020)

  The positive relationship between real exchange rates and natural resource income is well understood and studied. However, climate change and the transition to a lower-carbon economy now challenges this relationship. We ...

• Nowcasting Norwegian household consumption with debit card transaction data 

  Aastveit, Knut Are; Fastbø, Tuva Marie; Granziera, Eleonora; Paulsen, Kenneth Sæterhagen; Torstensen, Kjersti Næss (Working Paper;17/2020, Working paper, 2020)

  We use a novel data set covering all domestic debit card transactions in physical terminals by Norwegian households, to nowcast quarterly Norwegian household consumption. These card payments data are free of sampling errors ...

• Estimates of banks' losses on loans to the corporate sector 

  Hjelseth, Ida Nervik; Saxegaard, Elif Arbatli; Solheim, Haakon; Vatne, Bjørn H. (Staff Memo;10/2020, Working paper, 2020)

  Loans to non-financial enterprises are the main source of banks’ losses. Analyses of banks’ losses on corporate loans are therefore important in the assessment of financial stability. This paper presents Norges Bank’s framework ...

• Multiple credit constraints and timevarying macroeconomic dynamics 

  Ingholt, Marcus Mølbak (Working Paper;10/2020, Working paper, 2020)

  I explore the macroeconomic implications of borrowers facing both loan-to-value (LTV) and debt-service-to-income (DTI) limits, using an estimated DSGE model. I identify when each constraint dominated over the period ...

• The cost efficiency improvement of Norwegian banks can be explained by automation and digitalisation 

  Andersen, Henrik (Staff Memo;9/2020, Working paper, 2020)

  Operating costs in the Norwegian banking sector have been reduced considerably in recent decades, both as a share of income and assets. This has increased banks’ resilience to increased losses and reduced the risk of crises. ...

• The demand for safe liquid assets and the implications of issuing a Central Bank Digital Currency for bank funding instruments 

  Müller, Carola (Staff Memo;8/2020, Working paper, 2020)

  The pros and cons of issuing a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) is currently debated by Norges Bank and other central banks. A CBDC would grant access to the central bank balance sheet to a broader set of economic ...

• Kostnadseffektiviseringen til de norske bankene kan forklares med automatisering og digitalisering 

  Andersen, Henrik (Staff Memo;9/2020, Working paper, 2020)

  De norske bankene har redusert driftskostnadene betydelig de siste tiårene, både i forhold til inntektene og eiendelene. Det har gjort bankene mer robuste mot økte tap og redusert faren for kriser. I dette memoet analyserer ...

• Om gjennomslaget fra styringsrenten til bankenes renter 

  Juelsrud, Ragnar; Nordal, Kjell Bjørn; Winje, Hanna (Staff Memo;11/2020, Working paper, 2020)

  For at pengepolitikken skal virke inn på økonomien er det viktig at endringer i styringsrenten får gjennomslag til bankenes utlåns- og innskuddsrenter til foretak og husholdninger. Over tid ser vi at det er en sterk ...

• Anslag på bankenes tap på utlån til ikke-finansielle foretak 

  Hjelseth, Ida Nervik; Saxegaard, Elif Arbatli; Solheim, Haakon; Vatne, Bjørn H. (Staff Memo;10/2020, Working paper, 2020)

  Lån til ikke-finansielle foretak er den største kilden til tap i bankene. Analyser av bankenes utlånstap til foretak er derfor viktig i vurderingen av finansiell stabilitet. I dette memoet presenterer vi Norges Banks ...

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