• The Power of Forward Guidance in NEMO 

  Bergholt, Drago; Meyer, Sara S.; Mimir, Yasin; Røisland, Øistein (Staff Memo;7/2019, Working paper, 2019)

  This staff memo revisits the power of forward guidance with particular emphasis on the effectiveness of anticipated policy in Norges Bank’s main policy model NEMO. First we explain, within the context of a simple toy model, ...

• How Much of a Tailwind Have We Had from the Weaker Krone? 

  Naug, Bjørn; Nordbø, Einar W. (Staff Memo;6/2019, Working paper, 2019)

  It is usual to assume that a weaker currency will stimulate exports and improve the balance of trade. Despite the krone’s depreciation in recent years, however, exports have grown little and the non-oil trade deficit has ...

• Changing Supply Elasticities and Regional Housing Booms 

  Aastveit, Knut Are; Albuquerque, Bruno; Anundsen, André (Working Paper;8/2019, Working paper, 2019)

  Recent developments in US house prices mirror those of the 1996-2006 boom, but the recovery in construction activity has been weak. Using data for 254 US metropolitan areas, we show hat housing supply elasticities have ...

• Forecast Density Combinations with Dynamic Learning for Large Data Sets in Economics and Finance 

  Casarin, Roberto; Grassi, Stefano; Ravazzolo, Francesco; van Dijk, Herman K. (Working Paper;7/2019, Working paper, 2019)

  A flexible forecast density combination approach is introduced that can deal with large data sets. It extends the mixture of experts approach by allowing for model set incompleteness and dynamic learning of combination ...

• Utviklingen i husholdningenes kjøpekraft i boligmarkedet 

  Lindquist, Kjersti-Gro; Vatne, Bjørn Helge (Staff Memo;4/2019, Working paper, 2019)

  Husholdningenes kjøpekraft i boligmarkedet kan ha betydning for etterspørselen etter bolig. Vi analyserer kjøpekraft i boligmarkedet ved å sammenstille fordelingen av prisen på omsatte boliger med fordelingen av hvor ...

• En forbedret sammensatt systemisk stressindikator (CISS) for Norge 

  Hagen, Marius; Pettersen, Per Marius (Staff Memo;3/2019, Working paper, 2019)

  Norges Banks råd om motsyklisk kapitalbuffer baseres på et bredt sett av kvalitativ og kvantitativ informasjon. Det europeiske systemrisikorådet trekker frem at utviklingen i en generell indikator for systemisk stress i ...

• Navigating with NEMO 

  Kravik, Erling Motzfeldt; Mimir, Yasin (Staff Memo;5/2019, Working paper, 2019)

  This paper describes NEMO, the main dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model used at Norges Bank for monetary policy analysis and forecasting. NEMO has been used to identify the sources of business cycle fluctuations ...

• Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets 

  Evans, Martin D.D.; Rime, Dagfinn (Working Paper;6/2019, Working paper, 2019)

  This article presents an overview of research on the Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets. We begin by summarizing the institutional features of FX trading and describe how they have evolved since the 1980s. We then ...

• Nibor, Libor and Euribor – all IBORs, but different 

  Kloster, Arne; Syrstad, Olav (Staff Memo;2/2019, Working paper, 2019)

  This memo takes a closer look at what lays behind different benchmark interest rates. Particular emphasis is put on how the different practices for quotation can explain why Nibor’s risk premium has on average been higher ...

• News-Driven Inflation Expectations and Information Rigidities 

  Larsen, Vegard Høghaug; Thorsrud, Leif Anders; Zhulanova, Julia (Working Paper;5/2019, Working paper, 2019)

  We investigate the role played by the media in the expectations formation process of households. Using a novel news-topic-based approach we show that news types the media choose to report on, e.g., fiscal policy, health, ...

• Statlig pengeteori? : Pengebegrep, pengekrav og statsmyndighet 

  Syrstad, Helge (Skriftserie;54, Book, 2019)

• Et rammeverk for makrotilsynsstresstester 

  Andersen, Henrik; Gerdrup, Karsten R.; Johansen, Rønnaug Melle; Krogh, Tord (Staff Memo;1/2019, Working paper, 2019)

  Vi presenterer et rammeverk for makrotilsynsstresstester. Mens tradisjonelle stresstester vurderer nivået på bankenes kapitaldekning opp mot regulatoriske krav gjennom en tenkt krise, handler makrotilsynsstresstester om å ...

• A Macroprudential Stress Testing Framework 

  Andersen, Henrik; Gerdrup, Karsten R.; Johansen, Rønnaug Melle; Krogh, Tord (Staff Memo;1/2019, Working paper, 2019)

  We present a macroprudential stress testing framework. While traditional stress testing assesses the level of banks’ capital adequacy relative to regulatory requirements through a hypothetical crisis, macroprudential stress ...

• Negative Nominal Interest Rates and the Bank Lending Channel 

  Eggertsson, Gauti B.; Juelsrud, Ragnar E.; Summers, Lawrence H.; Wold, Ella Getz (Working Paper;4/2019, Working paper, 2019)

  Following the crisis of 2008, several central banks engaged in a new experiment by setting negative policy rates. Using aggregate and bank level data, we document that deposit rates stopped responding to policy rates once ...

• Bank Lending to the Commercial Real Estate Sector - a Source of Systemic Risk? 

  Hagen, Marius; Hjelseth, Ida Nervik; Solheim, Haakon; Vatne, Bjørn Helge (Staff Memo;11/2018, Working paper, 2018)

  Banks' commercial real estate loans account for almost half of banks' total loans to non-financial enterprises. Losses on these loans are normally low in good times, but they have proved to be one of the largest sources ...

• Residential Construction and Household Formation 

  Mæhlum, Sverre; Pettersen, Per Marius; Xu, Hong (Staff Memo;12/2018, Working paper, 2018)

  Population growth in Norway over the past 10-15 years has been strong, while residential construction activity has been fairly low. At the same time, household size continues to decline. The increase in the number of ...

• Multivariate Bayesian Predictive Synthesis in Macroeconomic Forecasting 

  McAlinn, Kenichiro; Aastveit, Knut Are; Nakajima, Jouchi; West, Mike (Working Paper;2/2019, Working paper, 2019)

  We present new methodology and a case study in use of a class of Bayesian predictive synthesis (BPS) models for multivariate time series forecasting. This extends the foundational BPS framework to the multivariate setting, ...

• Fertility Cost, Intergenerational Labor Division, and Female Employment 

  Yu, Haiyue; Cao, Jin; Kang, Shulong (Working Paper;3/2019, Working paper, 2019)

  China has set to increase the minimum retirement age, to ease the pressure from pension expenditure and the falling labor supply caused by the aging population. However, policy debates have so far neglected the crucial ...

• “Leaning Against the Wind”, Macroprudential Policy and the Financial Cycle 

  Kockerols, Thore; Kok, Christoffer (Working Paper;1/2019, Working paper, 2019)

  Should monetary policy lean against financial stability risks? This has been a subject of fierce debate over the last decades. We contribute to the debate about “leaning against the wind” (LAW) along three lines. First, ...

• Targeted Countercyclical Capital Buffers 

  Galaasen, Sigurd Mølster; Solheim, Haakon (Staff Memo;13/2018, Working paper, 2018)

  This paper investigates the effect of broad-based versus sectoral capital requirements using a dynamic model of bank behaviour. We study the problem facing banks when determining their dividend policy and portfolio of ...

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