• Langvarige konsekvenser i arbeidsmarkedet 

  Ellingsen, Nicolai; Galaasen, Sigurd Mølster (Staff Memo;1/2021, Working paper, 2021)

  Vi studerer langvarig sysselsettingskonsekvenser av dype økonomiske nedgangstider ved å utnytte den geografiske variasjonen i lokale økonomiske forhold i etterkant av oljepriskollapsen i 2014. Vi dokumenterer en negativ ...

• Bond market fire sales and turbulence in the Norwegian FX market in March 2020 

  Alstadheim, Ragna; Nordal, Kjell Bjørn; Syrstad, Olav; ter Ellen, Saskia; Wassas, May-Iren Walstad (Staff Memo;2/2021, Working paper, 2021)

  The world witnessed a meltdown in financial markets in March 2020 as the Covid-19 pandemic hit the global economy. In this memo we document how the turbulence affected Norwegian financial markets. We describe possible ...

• Climate risk and commodity currencies 

  Kapfhammer, Felix; Larsen, Vegard H.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (Working Paper;18/2020, Working paper, 2020)

  The positive relationship between real exchange rates and natural resource income is well understood and studied. However, climate change and the transition to a lower-carbon economy now challenges this relationship. We ...

• Nowcasting Norwegian household consumption with debit card transaction data 

  Aastveit, Knut Are; Fastbø, Tuva Marie; Granziera, Elenora; Paulsen, Kenneth Sætherhagen; Torstensen, Kjersti Næss (Working Paper;17/2020, Working paper, 2020)

  We use a novel data set covering all domestic debit card transactions in physical terminals by Norwegian households, to nowcast quarterly Norwegian household consumption. These card payments data are free of sampling errors ...

• Estimates of banks' losses on loans to the corporate sector 

  Hjelseth, Ida Nervik; Saxegaard, Elif Arbatli; Solheim, Haakon; Vatne, Bjørn H. (Staff Memo;10/2020, Working paper, 2020)

  Loans to non-financial enterprises are the main source of banks’ losses. Analyses of banks’ losses on corporate loans are therefore important in the assessment of financial stability. This paper presents Norges Bank’s framework ...

• Multiple credit constraints and timevarying macroeconomic dynamics 

  Ingholt, Marcus Mølbak (Working Paper;10/2020, Working paper, 2020)

  I explore the macroeconomic implications of borrowers facing both loan-to-value (LTV) and debt-service-to-income (DTI) limits, using an estimated DSGE model. I identify when each constraint dominated over the period ...

• Kostnadseffektiviseringen til de norske bankene kan forklares med automatisering og digitalisering 

  Andersen, Henrik (Staff Memo;9/2020, Working paper, 2020)

  De norske bankene har redusert driftskostnadene betydelig de siste tiårene, både i forhold til inntektene og eiendelene. Det har gjort bankene mer robuste mot økte tap og redusert faren for kriser. I dette memoet analyserer ...

• The cost efficiency improvement of Norwegian banks can be explained by automation and digitalisation 

  Andersen, Henrik (Staff Memo;9/2020, Working paper, 2020)

  Operating costs in the Norwegian banking sector have been reduced considerably in recent decades, both as a share of income and assets. This has increased banks’ resilience to increased losses and reduced the risk of crises. ...

• Anslag på bankenes tap på utlån til ikke-finansielle foretak 

  Hjelseth, Ida Nervik; Saxegaard, Elif Arbatli; Solheim, Haakon; Vatne, Bjørn H. (Staff Memo;10/2020, Working paper, 2020)

  Lån til ikke-finansielle foretak er den største kilden til tap i bankene. Analyser av bankenes utlånstap til foretak er derfor viktig i vurderingen av finansiell stabilitet. I dette memoet presenterer vi Norges Banks ...

• The demand for safe liquid assets and the implications of issuing a Central Bank Digital Currency for bank funding instruments 

  Müller, Carola (Staff Memo;8/2020, Working paper, 2020)

  The pros and cons of issuing a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) is currently debated by Norges Bank and other central banks. A CBDC would grant access to the central bank balance sheet to a broader set of economic ...

• Om gjennomslaget fra styringsrenten til bankenes renter 

  Juelsrud, Ragnar; Nordal, Kjell Bjørn; Winje, Hanna (Staff Memo;11/2020, Working paper, 2020)

  For at pengepolitikken skal virke inn på økonomien er det viktig at endringer i styringsrenten får gjennomslag til bankenes utlåns- og innskuddsrenter til foretak og husholdninger. Over tid ser vi at det er en sterk ...

• Granular credit risk 

  Galaasen, Sigurd; Jamilov, Rustam; Rey, Hélène; Juelsrud, Ragnar (Working Paper;15/2020, Working paper, 2020)

  What is the impact of granular credit risk on banks and on the economy? We provide the first causal identification of single-name counterparty exposure risk in bank portfolios by applying a new empirical approach on an ...

• Covered Interest Parity in long-dated securities 

  Syrstad, Olav (Working Paper;11/2020, Working paper, 2020)

  This paper investigates the validity of Covered Interest Rate Parity (CIP) in longdated fixed income securities. I show that common measures of CIP rely on trading strategies subject to rollover risk and credit risk, or ...

• News media vs. FRED-MD for macroeconomic forecasting 

  Ellingsen, Jon; Larsen, Vegard H.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (Working Paper;14/2020, Working paper, 2020)

  Using a unique dataset of 22.5 million news articles from the Dow Jones Newswires Archive, we perform an in depth real-time out-of-sample forecasting comparison study with one of the most widely used data sets in the newer ...

• Price-setting in the foreign exchange swap market: Evidence from order flow 

  Syrstad, Olav; Viswanath-Natraj, Ganesh (Working Paper;16/2020, Working paper, 2020)

  This paper investigates price discovery in foreign exchange (FX) swaps. Using data on inter-dealer transactions, we find that a 1 standard deviation increase in order flow (i.e. net pressure to obtain USD through FX swaps) ...

• Opacity and risk-taking: Evidence from Norway 

  Cao, Jin; Juelsrud, Ragnar E. (Working Paper;12/2020, Working paper, 2020)

  This paper investigates how balance sheet opacity affects banks' risk-taking behavior. We measure bank balance sheet opacity according to two metrics: the ratio of available-for-sale (AFS) securities and the ratio of ...

• Estimating hysteresis effects 

  Furlanetto, Francesco; Robstad, Ørjan; Ulvedal, Pål; Lepetit, Antoine (Working Paper;13/2020, Working paper, 2020)

  In this paper we extend the standard Blanchard-Quah decomposition to enable fluctuations in aggregate demand to have a long-run impact on the productive capacity of the economy through hysteresis effects. These demand ...

• Countercyclical capital requirement reductions, state dependence and macroeconomic outcomes 

  Juelsrud, Ragnar E.; Arbatli-Saxegaard, Elif C. (Working Paper;9/2020, Working paper, 2020)

  We use bank-, loan- and firm-level data together with a quasi-natural experiment to estimate the impact of capital requirement reductions on bank lending and real economic outcomes. We find that capital requirement reductions ...

• The countercyclical capital buffer: A cross-country overview of policy frameworks 

  Arbatli-Saxegaard, Elif C.; Muneer, Mohammad Adnan (Staff Memo;6/2020, Working paper, 2020)

  The countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) is a relatively new macroprudential tool, but the number of countries that have set a positive buffer level increased significantly over recent years. Furthermore, during the ...

• Banks’ wholesale funding share as an indicator of financial vulnerability 

  Alstadheim, Ragna (Staff Memo;7/2020, Working paper, 2020)

  A review of theoretical links between the wholesale (or market) funding share of banks (WFS) and financial vulnerability is provided. The vulnerability may both be within the financial system, and in the non-financial ...

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