Working Papers inneholder forskningsarbeider og utredninger som vanligvis ikke har fått sin endelige form. Også andre faglige analyser fra økonomer i Norges Bank utgis i serien. Synspunkter og konklusjoner i arbeidene står for forfatternes regning.

Norges Bank Working Papers distribueres også gjennom RepEc, SSRN og BIS Central Bank Research Hub.

Norges Bank’s working papers present research projects and reports that are generally not in their final form. Other analyses by Norges Bank’s economists are also included in the series. The views and conclusions in these documents are those of the authors.

Norges Bank’s Working Papers are also distributed by RepEc, SSRN and BIS Central Bank Research Hub.

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Recent Submissions

  • Countercyclical capital requirement reductions, state dependence and macroeconomic outcomes 

    Juelsrud, Ragnar E.; Arbatli-Saxegaard, Elif C. (Working Paper;9/2020, Working paper, 2020)
    We use bank-, loan- and firm-level data together with a quasi-natural experiment to estimate the impact of capital requirement reductions on bank lending and real economic outcomes. We find that capital requirement reductions ...
  • The interaction between macroprudential and monetary policies: The cases of Norway and Sweden 

    Cao, Jin; Dinger, Valeriya; Grodecka-Messi, Anna; Juelsrud, Ragnar; Zhang, Xin (Working Paper;8/2020, Working paper, 2020)
    To shed light on the interaction between macroprudential and monetary policies, we study the inward transmission of foreign monetary policy in conjunction with domestic macroprudential and monetary policies in Norway and ...
  • Norges Bank Output Gap Estimates: Forecasting Properties, Reliability and Cyclical Sensitivity 

    Furlanetto, Francesco; Hagelund, Kåre; Hansen, Frank; Robstad, Ørjan (Working Paper;7/2020, Working paper, 2020)
    This paper documents the suite of models used by Norges Bank to estimate the output gap. The models are estimated using data on GDP, unemployment, inflation, wages, investment, house prices and credit. We evaluate the ...
  • Mortgage regulation and financial vulnerability at the household level 

    Aastveit, Knut Are; Juelsrud, Ragnar Enger; Wold, Ella Getz (Working Paper;6/2020, Working paper, 2020)
    We evaluate the impact of mortgage regulation on credit volumes, household balance sheets and the reaction to adverse economic shocks. Using a comprehensive dataset of all housing transactions in Norway matched with buyers' ...
  • Expectations switching in a DSGE model of the UK 

    Borge, Anette; Bårdsen, Gunnar; Maih, Junior (Working Paper;4/2020, Working paper, 2020)
    Rational expectations (RE) has been dominant both in the economic literature and in the macromodels routinely used in central banks. The RE assumption has recently come under attack as one of the drawbacks of the Dynamic ...
  • Inflation expectations and the pass-through of oil prices 

    Aastveit, Knut Are; Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Cross, Jamie L. (Working Paper;5/2020, Working paper, 2020)
    Do inflation expectations and the associated pass-through of oil price shocks depend on demand and supply conditions underlying the global market for crude oil? We answer this question with a novel structural vector ...
  • Bonds, currencies and expectational errors 

    Granziera, Eleonora; Sihvonen, Markus (Working Paper;3/2020, Working paper, 2020)
    We propose a model in which sticky expectations concerning shortterm interest rates generate joint predictability patterns in bond and currency markets. Using our calibrated model, we quantify the effect of this channel ...
  • How broadband internet affects labor market matching 

    Bhuller, Manudeep; Kostøl, Andreas R.; Vigtel, Trond C. (Working Paper;1/2020, Working paper, 2020)
    How the internet affects job matching is not well understood due to a lack of data on job vacancies and quasi-experimental variation in internet use. This paper helps fill this gap using plausibly exogenous roll-out of ...
  • Location, location, location! - A quality-adjusted rent index for the Oslo office market 

    Anundsen, André K.; Hagen, Marius (Working Paper;2/2020, Working paper, 2020)
    In this paper, we construct a quality-adjusted rent index for the office market in Oslo. Commonly used rent indices are based on average developments or expert opinions. Such indices often suffer from compositional biases ...
  • The decline of the labor share: new empirical evidence 

    Bergholt, Drago; Furlanetto, Francesco; Faccioli, Nicolò Maffei (Working Paper;18/2019, Working paper, 2019)
    We estimate a structural vector autoregressive model in order to quantify four main explanations for the decline of the US labor income share: (i) rising market power of firms, (ii) falling market power of workers, (iii) ...
  • The Saving and Employment Effects of Higher Job Loss Risk 

    Juelsrud, Ragnar E.; Wold, Ella Getz (Working Paper;17/2019, Working paper, 2019)
    In this paper we use Norwegian tax data and a novel natural experiment to isolate the impact of job loss risk on saving behavior. We find that a one percentage point increase in job loss risk increases liquid savings by ...
  • State dependence of monetary policy across business, credit and interest rate cycles 

    Alpanda, Sami; Granziera, Eleonora; Zubairy, Sarah (Working Paper;21/2019, Working paper, 2019)
    We investigate how the business, credit and interest rate cycles affect the monetary transmission mechanism, using state-dependent local projection methods and data from 18 advanced economies. We exploit the time-series ...
  • Does Publication of Interest Rate Paths Provide Guidance? 

    Rime, Dagfinn; Syrstad, Olav; Natvik, Gisle J. (Working Paper;16/2019, Working paper, 2019)
    Does the central bank practice of publishing interest rate projections (IRPs) improve how market participants map new information into future interest rates? Using high-frequent data on Forward Rate Agreements (FRAs) we ...
  • Narrative monetary policy surprises and the media 

    ter Ellen, Saskia; Larsen, Vegard H.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (Working Paper;19/2019, Working paper, 2019)
    We propose a method to quantify narratives from textual data in a structured manner, and identify what we label "narrative monetary policy surprises" as the change in economic media coverage that can be explained by central ...
  • The macroeconomic effects of forward communication 

    Brubakk, Leif; ter Ellen, Saskia; Robstad, Ørjan; Xu, Hong (Working Paper;20/2019, Working paper, 2019)
    This paper provides an empirical assessment of the power of forward guidance at different horizons, shedding new light on the strength of the “forward guidance puzzle”. Our identification strategy allows us to disentangle ...
  • Is monetary policy always effective? Incomplete interest rate pass-through in a DSGE model 

    Binning, Andrew; Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Maih, Junior (Working Paper;22/2019, Working paper, 2019)
    We estimate a regime-switching DSGE model with a banking sector to explain incomplete and asymmetric interest rate pass-through, especially in the presence of a binding zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint. The model is ...
  • The shale oil boom and the U.S. economy: Spillovers and time-varying effects 

    Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Zhulanova, Julia (Working Paper;14/2019, Working paper, 2019)
    We analyze if the transmission of oil price shocks on the U.S. economy has changed with the shale oil boom. To do so, we put forward a framework that allows for spillovers between industries and learning by doing (LBD) ...
  • Oil price drivers, geopolitical uncertainty and oil exporters’ currencies 

    Akram, Q. Farooq (Working Paper;15/2019, Working paper, 2019)
    Empirical relationships between crude oil prices and exchange rates of oil exporting countries tend to vary over time. I use econometric models of the norwegian and canadian nominal exchange rates to investigate whether ...
  • Partially Censored Posterior for robust and efficient risk evaluation 

    Borowska, Agnieszka; Hoogerheide, Lennart; Koopman, Siem Jan; van Dijk, Herman K. (Working Paper;12/2019, Working paper, 2019)
    A novel approach to inference for a specific region of the predictive distribution is introduced. An important domain of application is accurate prediction of financial risk measures, where the area of interest is the left ...
  • Liquidity at risk: Joint stress testing of solvency and liquidity 

    Cont, Rama; Kotlicki, Artur; Valderrama, Laura (Working Paper;11/2019, Working paper, 2019)
    The traditional approach to the stress testing of financial institutions focuses on capital adequacy and solvency. Liquidity stress tests are often applied in parallel to solvency stress tests, based on scenarios which may ...

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