Arbeidsnotater / Working Papers
Working Papers inneholder forskningsarbeider og utredninger som vanligvis ikke har fått sin endelige form. Også andre faglige analyser fra økonomer i Norges Bank utgis i serien. Synspunkter og konklusjoner i arbeidene står for forfatternes regning.
Norges Bank Working Papers distribueres også gjennom RepEc, SSRN og BIS Central Bank Research Hub.
Norges Bank’s working papers present research projects and reports that are generally not in their final form. Other analyses by Norges Bank’s economists are also included in the series. The views and conclusions in these documents are those of the authors.
Norges Bank’s Working Papers are also distributed by RepEc, SSRN and BIS Central Bank Research Hub.
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Recent Submissions
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On Bayesian filtering for Markov regime switching models
(Working paper;8/2024, Working paper, 2024)This paper presents a framework for empirical analysis of dynamic macroeconomic models using Bayesian filtering, with a specific focus on the state-space formulation of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models ... -
What drives the recent surge in inflation? The historical decomposition roller coaster
(Working paper;7/2024, Working paper, 2024)What drives the recent inflation surge? To answer this question, one must decompose inflation fluctuations into the contribution of structural shocks. We document how whimsical such a historical shock decomposition can be ... -
Cross-border bank flows, regional household credit booms and bank risk-taking
(Working paper;10/2024, Working paper, 2024)This paper provides novel micro-level evidence that cross-border bank flows are important for households’ access to credit not only in emerging markets but also in advanced economies. These foreign bank flows can drive ... -
The consumption expenditure response to unemployment: evidence from Norwegian households
(Working paper;6/2024, Working paper, 2024)We use detailed Norwegian administrative data to identify the income loss associated with the onset of unemployment and analyze the corresponding consumption expenditure response and the extent to which this response is ... -
The bias of the ECB inflation projections: a state-dependent analysis
(Working paper;11/2024, Working paper, 2024)We test for state-dependent bias in the European Central Bank’s inflation projections. We show that the ECB tends to underpredict when the observed inflation rate at the time of forecasting is higher than an estimated ... -
Taylor rules with endogenous regimes
(Working paper;9/2024, Working paper, 2024)The Fed’s policy rule switches during the different phases of the business cycle. This finding is established using a dynamic mixture model to estimate regime-dependent Taylor-type rules on US quarterly data from 1960 to ... -
The dynamics of stock market participation
(Working paper;5/2024, Working paper, 2024)We document novel facts on the exit and reentry margins of stock market participation by retail investors using detailed administrative data on every Norwegian resident from 1993 to 2016. Contrary to the conventional view ... -
Banking on deposit relationships: implications for hold-up problems in the loan market
(Working paper;4/2024, Working paper, 2024)Theory suggests that by lending to a firm, inside banks gain an informational advantage over non-lender outside banks. This informational gap hinders borrowers from switching lenders due to a winner’s curse faced by competing ... -
Macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy under an energy supply shock
(Working paper;3/2024, Working paper, 2024)We study the potential effects on the real economy and welfare of four fiscal policy responses to an energy supply shock: energy vouchers to all households, only to lowincome households, or to non-energy goods producers, ... -
The drivers of emission reductions in the European carbon market
(Working paper;1/2024, Working paper, 2024)This paper studies the drivers of emission reductions in the carbon market of the European Union Emission Trading System (EU ETS) since its inception in 2005. We introduce a novel empirical framework that facilitates the ... -
The corporate real effects of CIP deviations
(Working paper;2/2024, Working paper, 2024)We show corporate real effects from Covered Interest Parity (CIP) deviations exploiting administrative data from Norway as well as CIP deviation shocks. Banks with access to U.S. money markets strongly increase USD global ... -
Match quality and house price dispersion: evidence from Norwegian housing auctions
(Working paper;12/2023, Working paper, 2023)Assessing the quantitative relevance of match quality and search frictions for house price dispersion is key to understanding house price formation and the importance of uninsurable housing wealth shocks. In this paper, ... -
The housing channel of intergenerational wealth persistence
(Working paper;16/2023, Working paper, 2023)We use Norwegian tax data and a life-cycle model with housing to study how wealth transmits across generations through the housing market. After controlling for a rich set of attributes, households with richer parents are ... -
Spousal spillovers in the labor market: a structural assessment
(Working paper;14/2023, Working paper, 2023)We explore the importance and nature of elderly couples’ labor market interlinkages, and how such linkages shape the response to welfare reforms. To this end, we build a life cycle model with dual-earner households, featuring ... -
Has globalization changed the international transmission of U.S. monetary policy?
(Working paper;15/2023, Working paper, 2023)We estimate a time-varying parameter vector autoregression to examine the evolution of international spillovers of U.S. monetary policy in light of increasing globalization in real and financial markets. We find that the ... -
Housing bubble scars
(Working paper;13/2023, Working paper, 2023)We study scar formation and persistence after a house price bubble has burst using data on 3,089 US counties and county equivalents over the period 1980q1–2019q4. We date house price booms and busts for each county, and ... -
Unpacking the forward guidance puzzle
(Working paper;11/2023, Working paper, 2023)I prove that in any linearized general equilibrium model with existence and uniqueness of equilibrium, any present response to a future shock always becomes weaker the further away the shock is. There is no forward guidance ... -
Monitoring multicountry macroeconomic risk
(Working paper;9/2023, Working paper, 2023)We propose a multicountry quantile factor augmeneted vector autoregression (QFAVAR) to model heterogeneities both across countries and across characteristics of the distributions of macroeconomic time series. The presence ... -
Trade conflicts and credit supply spillovers : Evidence from the Nobel Peace Prize trade shock
(Working paper;6/2023, Working paper, 2023)In this paper, we examine how a trade conflict’s impact on the real economy can be amplified by financial intermediaries. After China’s implicit ban on the imports of Norwegian salmon in response to the decision on 2010 ... -
Does SOFR-linked debt cost borrowers more than LIBOR-linked debt?
(Working paper;7/2023, Working paper, 2023)We investigate if the benchmark transition from London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor) to Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) affects the costs of borrowing floating rate debt. The primary market for dollar-denominated ...
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