Working Papers inneholder forskningsarbeider og utredninger som vanligvis ikke har fått sin endelige form. Også andre faglige analyser fra økonomer i Norges Bank utgis i serien. Synspunkter og konklusjoner i arbeidene står for forfatternes regning.

Norges Bank Working Papers distribueres også gjennom RepEc, SSRN og BIS Central Bank Research Hub.

Norges Bank’s working papers present research projects and reports that are generally not in their final form. Other analyses by Norges Bank’s economists are also included in the series. The views and conclusions in these documents are those of the authors.

Norges Bank’s Working Papers are also distributed by RepEc, SSRN and BIS Central Bank Research Hub.

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Recent Submissions

  • Monetary policy when export revenues drop 

    Bergholt, Drago; Røisland, Øistein; Sveen, Tommy; Torvik, Ragnar (Working paper;11/2022, Working paper, 2022)
    We study how monetary policy should respond to shocks which permanently alter the steady state structure of the economy. In such a case monetary policy affects not only the short run misallocations due to nominal rigidities, ...
  • Dividend Signaling and Bank Payouts in the Great Financial Crisis 

    Juelsrud, Ragnar E.; Nenov, Plamen T. (Working paper;9/2022, Working paper, 2022)
    We study the dividend payouts of U.S. banks during the 2008 financial crisis. Using a difference-in-differences methodology, we shows that banks with higher share of short-term liabilities to total liabilities, which were ...
  • The Price Responsiveness of Shale Producers: Evidence from Micro Data 

    Aastveit, Knut Are; Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Gundersen, Thomas S. (Working paper;10/2022, Working paper, 2022)
    We show that shale oil producers respond positively to favourable oil price signals, and that this response is mainly associated with the timing of production decisions through well completion and refracturing, consistent ...
  • Bad News, Good News: Coverage and Response Asymmetries 

    Gambetti, Luca; Maffei-Faccioli, Nicolò; Zoi, Sarah (Working paper;8/2022, Working paper, 2022)
    We study the dynamic link between economic news coverage and the macroeconomy. We construct two measures of media coverage of bad and good unemployment figures based on three major US newspapers. Using nonlinear time series ...
  • A bankruptcy probability model for assessing credit risk on corporate loans with automated variable selection 

    Hjelseth, Ida Nervik; Raknerud, Arvid; Vatne, Bjørn H. (Working paper;7/2022, Working paper, 2022)
    We propose an econometric model for predicting the share of bank debt held by bankrupt firms by combining a novel set of firm-level financial variables and macroeconomic indicators. Our firm-level data include payment ...
  • Human vs. Machine: Disposition Effect among Algorithmic and Human Day Traders 

    Liaudinskas, Karolis (Working paper;6/2022, Working paper, 2022)
    This paper studies whether and why algorithmic traders exhibit one of the most broadlydocumented behavioral puzzles – the disposition effect. We use trade data from the NASDAQ Copenhagen Stock Exchange merged with the ...
  • Foreign banks and the doom loop 

    Albertazzi, Ugo; Cimadomo, Jacopo; Maffei-Faccioli, Nicolò (Working paper;2/2022, Working paper, 2022)
    This paper explores whether foreign banks stabilise or destabilise lending to the real economy in the presence of sovereign stress in the domestic economy and abroad. In this context, the presence of foreign intermediaries ...
  • Explaining Deviations from Okun’s Law 

    Foroni, Claudia; Furlanetto, Francesco (Working paper;4/2022, Working paper, 2022)
    Despite its stability over time, as for any statistical relationship, Okun’s law is subject to deviations that can be large at times. In this paper, we provide a mapping between residuals in Okun’s regressions and structural ...
  • Aggregate density forecast of models using disaggregate data - A copula approach 

    Paulsen, Kenneth Sæterhagen; Fastbø, Tuva Marie; Ingebrigtsen, Tobias (Working paper;5/2022, Working paper, 2022)
    We propose a novel copula approach to producing density forecasts of economic aggregates combining models using disaggregate data. Our copula approach is more flexible compared to existing techniques, because it is applicable ...
  • Nonlinear transmission of financial shocks: Some new evidence 

    Forni, Mario; Gambetti, Luca; Maffei-Faccioli, Nicolò; Sala, Luca (Working paper;3/2022, Working paper, 2022)
    Financial shocks generate a protracted and quantitatively important effect on real economic activity and financial markets only if the shocks are both negative and large. Otherwise, their role is quite modest. Financial ...
  • Identifying the depreciation rate of durables from marginal spending responses 

    Cao, Jin; Cui, Chao; Dinger, Valeriya; Holm, Martin B.; Kang, Shulong (Working paper;1/2022, Working paper, 2022)
    This paper presents a novel method to estimate the depreciation rate of durable goods using a combination of identified marginal and average spending shares. We apply our method to Chinese spending responses to disposable ...
  • Executive Labor Market Frictions, Corporate Bankruptcy and CEO Careers 

    Grindaker, Morten; Kostøl, Andreas R.; Roszbach, Kasper (Working paper;15/2021, Working paper, 2021)
    CEOs of large firms filing for bankruptcy are more likely to exit the executive labor market after bankruptcy and experience substantial compensation losses (Eckbo et al., 2016). While the fear of reputational scarring can ...
  • Symbolic Stationarization of Dynamic Equilibrium Models 

    Canova, Fabio; Paulsen, Kenneth Sæterhagen (Working paper;18/2021, Working paper, 2021)
    Dynamic equilibrium models are specified to track time series with unit root-like behavior. Thus, unit roots are typically introduced and the optimality conditions adjusted. This step requires tedious algebra and often ...
  • Disclosing the Undisclosed: Commercial Paper As Hidden Liquidity Suffers 

    Klingler, Sven; Syrstad, Olav (Working paper;16/2021, Working paper, 2021)
    Using new transaction-level data for non-financial commercial paper (CP) in the U.S., we show that companies systematically reduce their outstanding short-term debt on quarterly and annual disclosure dates. Constraints on ...
  • The Inflation Rate Disconnect Puzzle: On the International Component of Trend Inflation and the Flattening of the Phillips Curve 

    Ascari, Guido; Fosso, Luca (Working paper;17/2021, Working paper, 2021)
    Since 2000 U.S. inflation has remained both below target and silent to domestic slack and monetary interventions. A trend-cycle BVAR decomposition explores the role of imported intermediate goods in explaining the puzzling ...
  • Risk-based pricing in competitive lending markets 

    Müller, Carola; Juelsrud, Ragnar; Andersen, Henrik (Working paper;19/2021, Working paper, 2021)
    We use unique data on banks' private risk assessments of corporate borrowers to quantify how competition among banks affect the risk sensitivity of interest rates in the Norwegian credit market. We show that an increase ...
  • Non-standard errors 

    Menkveld, Albert J.; Ter Ellen, Saskia; Wika, Hans Christian (Working paper;13/2021, Working paper, 2021)
    In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a datagenerating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in sample estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses ...
  • Household Leverage and Labor Market Outcomes : Evidence from a Macroprudential Mortgage Restriction 

    Kabaş, Gazi; Roszbach, Kasper (Working paper;14/2021, Working paper, 2021)
    Does household leverage matter for worker job search, matching in the labor market, and wages? Theoretically, household leverage can have opposing effects on the labor market through debt-overhang and liquidity constraint ...
  • Monetary policy spillover to small open economies: Is the transmission different under low interest rates? 

    Cao, Jin; Dinger, Valeriya; Gómez, Tomás; Gric, Zuzana; Hodula, Martin; Jara, Alejandro; Juelsrud, Ragnar; Liaudinskas, Karolis; Malovaná, Simona; Terajima, Yaz (Working Paper;12/2021, Working paper, 2021)
    We explore the impact of low and negative monetary policy rates in core world economies on bank lending in four small open economies – Canada, Chile, the Czech Republic and Norway – using confidential bank-level data. Our ...
  • Leaning against persistent financial cycles with occasional crises 

    Kockerols, Thore; Kravik, Erling Motzfeldt; Mimir, Yasin (Working Paper;11/2021, Working paper, 2021)
    Should central banks use leaning against the wind (LAW)-type monetary or macroprudential policy to address risks to financial stability? We first assess LAW as a one-off (nonsystematic) policy using an estimated large-scale ...

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