Blar i Norges Banks publikasjonsserier / Norges Bank publication series på emneord "forecast densities"
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Combining VAR and DSGE Forecast Densities
(Working Papers;23/2009, Working paper, 2009)A popular macroeconomic forecasting strategy takes combinations across many models to hedge against instabilities of unknown timing; see (among others) Stock and Watson (2004), Clark and McCracken (2010), and Jore et al. ... -
Forecasting Recessions in Real Time
(Working Papers;2/2014, Working paper, 2014)We review several methods to define and forecast classical business cycle turning points in Norway. In the paper we compare the Bry - Boschan rule (BB) with a Markov Switching model (MS), using alternative vintages of ... -
Nowcasting GDP in Real-Time: A Density Combination Approach
(Working Papers;11/2011, Working paper, 2011)In this paper we use U.S. real-time vintage data and produce combined density nowcasts for quarterly GDP growth from a system of three commonly used model classes. The density nowcasts are combined in two steps. First, a ... -
Short-Term Forecasting of GDP and Inflation in Real-Time : Norges Bank’s System for Averaging Models
(Staff Memo;9/2011, Working paper, 2011)In this paper we describe Norges Bank's system for averaging models (SAM) which produces model-based density forecasts for Norwegian Mainland GDP and inflation. We combine the forecasts from three main types of models ...