Norges Banks vitenarkiv: Nye registreringer
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Taylor rules with endogenous regimes
(Working paper;9/2024, Working paper, 2024)The Fed’s policy rule switches during the different phases of the business cycle. This finding is established using a dynamic mixture model to estimate regime-dependent Taylor-type rules on US quarterly data from 1960 to ... -
What drives the recent surge in inflation? The historical decomposition roller coaster
(Working paper;7/2024, Working paper, 2024)What drives the recent inflation surge? To answer this question, one must decompose inflation fluctuations into the contribution of structural shocks. We document how whimsical such a historical shock decomposition can be ... -
The bias of the ECB inflation projections: a state-dependent analysis
(Working paper;11/2024, Working paper, 2024)We test for state-dependent bias in the European Central Bank’s inflation projections. We show that the ECB tends to underpredict when the observed inflation rate at the time of forecasting is higher than an estimated ... -
The dynamics of stock market participation
(Working paper;5/2024, Working paper, 2024)We document novel facts on the exit and reentry margins of stock market participation by retail investors using detailed administrative data on every Norwegian resident from 1993 to 2016. Contrary to the conventional view ... -
Banking on deposit relationships: implications for hold-up problems in the loan market
(Working paper;4/2024, Working paper, 2024)Theory suggests that by lending to a firm, inside banks gain an informational advantage over non-lender outside banks. This informational gap hinders borrowers from switching lenders due to a winner’s curse faced by competing ... -
Macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy under an energy supply shock
(Working paper;3/2024, Working paper, 2024)We study the potential effects on the real economy and welfare of four fiscal policy responses to an energy supply shock: energy vouchers to all households, only to lowincome households, or to non-energy goods producers, ... -
The drivers of emission reductions in the European carbon market
(Working paper;1/2024, Working paper, 2024)This paper studies the drivers of emission reductions in the carbon market of the European Union Emission Trading System (EU ETS) since its inception in 2005. We introduce a novel empirical framework that facilitates the ... -
The corporate real effects of CIP deviations
(Working paper;2/2024, Working paper, 2024)We show corporate real effects from Covered Interest Parity (CIP) deviations exploiting administrative data from Norway as well as CIP deviation shocks. Banks with access to U.S. money markets strongly increase USD global ... -
Policy rate kept on hold
(Others, 2024) -
Time to ease monetary policy is approaching
(Others, 2024) -
The policy rate will likely be kept unchanged to the end of the year
(Others, 2024) -
Responsible innovation in the payment system
(Others, 2024) -
Norges Bank's balance sheet
(Others, 2024) -
The conduct of monetary policy
(Others, 2024) -
Need to keep the interest rate high
(Others, 2024) -
Soon appropriate to begin easing monetary policy
(Others, 2024)