Browsing Arbeidsnotater / Working Papers by Author "Jalasjoki, Pirkka"

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    • The Bias and Efficiency of the ECB Inflation Projections: a State Dependent Analysis 

      Granziera, Eleonora; Jalasjoki, Pirkka; Palovita, Maritta (Working Paper;1/2021, Working paper, 2021)
      We test for bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation forecasts using a confidential dataset of ECB macroeconomic quarterly projections. We investigate whether the properties of the forecasts depend on the level of inflation, ...

    • The bias of the ECB inflation projections: a state-dependent analysis 

      Granziera, Eleonora; Jalasjoki, Pirkka; Paloviita, Maritta (Working paper;11/2024, Working paper, 2024)
      We test for state-dependent bias in the European Central Bank’s inflation projections. We show that the ECB tends to underpredict when the observed inflation rate at the time of forecasting is higher than an estimated ...