Blar i Arbeidsnotater / Working Papers på emneord "ensemble modelling"
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Combining VAR and DSGE Forecast Densities
(Working Papers;23/2009, Working paper, 2009)A popular macroeconomic forecasting strategy takes combinations across many models to hedge against instabilities of unknown timing; see (among others) Stock and Watson (2004), Clark and McCracken (2010), and Jore et al. ... -
Macro Modelling with Many Models
(Working Papers;15/2009, Working paper, 2009)We argue that the next generation of macro modellers at Inflation Targeting central banks should adapt a methodology from the weather forecasting literature known as `ensemble modelling'. In this approach, uncertainty about ...