Browsing Arbeidsnotater / Working Papers by Subject "forecast evaluation"

Now showing items 1-4 of 4

    • The Bias and Efficiency of the ECB Inflation Projections: a State Dependent Analysis 

      Granziera, Eleonora; Jalasjoki, Pirkka; Palovita, Maritta (Working Paper;1/2021, Working paper, 2021)
      We test for bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation forecasts using a confidential dataset of ECB macroeconomic quarterly projections. We investigate whether the properties of the forecasts depend on the level of inflation, ...

    • Combining VAR and DSGE Forecast Densities 

      Bache, Ida Wolden; Jore, Anne Sofie; Mitchell, James; Vahey, Shaun P. (Working Papers;23/2009, Working paper, 2009)
      A popular macroeconomic forecasting strategy takes combinations across many models to hedge against instabilities of unknown timing; see (among others) Stock and Watson (2004), Clark and McCracken (2010), and Jore et al. ...

    • Nowcasting GDP in Real-Time: A Density Combination Approach 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Gerdrup, Karsten R.; Jore, Anne Sofie; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (Working Papers;11/2011, Working paper, 2011)
      In this paper we use U.S. real-time vintage data and produce combined density nowcasts for quarterly GDP growth from a system of three commonly used model classes. The density nowcasts are combined in two steps. First, a ...

    • Nowcasting Norwegian household consumption with debit card transaction data 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Fastbø, Tuva Marie; Granziera, Eleonora; Paulsen, Kenneth Sæterhagen; Torstensen, Kjersti Næss (Working Paper;17/2020, Working paper, 2020)
      We use a novel data set covering all domestic debit card transactions in physical terminals by Norwegian households, to nowcast quarterly Norwegian household consumption. These card payments data are free of sampling errors ...