Blar i Arbeidsnotater / Working Papers på emneord "housing bubbles"
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Detecting Imbalances in House Prices: What Goes up Must Come Down?
(Working Papers;11/2016, Working paper, 2016)With the aid of econometric modeling, I investigate whether rapidly increasing house prices necessarily imply the existence of a bubble that will eventually burst. I consider four alternative econometric methods to construct ... -
Explaining the Boom-Bust Cycle in the U.S. Housing Market: A Reverse-Engineering Approach
(Working Papers;11/2015, Working paper, 2015)We use a simple quantitative asset pricing model to "reverse-engineer" the sequences of stochastic shocks to housing demand and lending standards that are needed to exactly replicate the boom-bust patterns in U.S. household ... -
House Prices, Credit Growth, and Excess Volatility: Implications for Monetary and Macroprudential Policy
(Working Papers;8/2012, Working paper, 2012)Progress on the question of whether policymakers should respond directly to financial variables requires a realistic economic model that captures the links between asset prices, credit expansion, and real economic activity. ... -
House Prices, Expectations, and Time-Varying Fundamentals
(Working Papers;5/2013, Working paper, 2013)We investigate the behavior of the equilibrium price-rent ratio for housing in a simple Lucas-type asset pricing model. We allow for time-varying risk aversion (via external habit formation) and time-varying persistence ...