Blar i Arbeidsnotater / Working Papers på emneord "real-time data"

Viser treff 1-7 av 7

    • Combined Density Nowcasting in an Uncertain Economic Environment 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Ravazzolo, Francesco; van Dijk, Herman K. (Working Papers;17/2014, Working paper, 2014)
      We introduce a Combined Density Nowcasting (CDN) approach to Dynamic Factor Models (DFM) that in a coherent way accounts for time-varying uncertainty of several model and data features in order to provide more accurate and ...

    • Forecasting Recessions in Real Time 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Jore, Anne Sofie; Ravazzolo, Francesco (Working Papers;2/2014, Working paper, 2014)
      We review several methods to define and forecast classical business cycle turning points in Norway. In the paper we compare the Bry - Boschan rule (BB) with a Markov Switching model (MS), using alternative vintages of ...

    • Identification and Real-Time Forecasting of Norwegian Business Cycles 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Jore, Anne Sofie; Ravazzolo, Francesco (Working Papers;9/2015, Working paper, 2015)
      We de fine and forecast classical business cycle turning points for the Norwegian economy. When defining reference business cycles, we compare a univariate and a multivariate Bry-Boschan approach with univariate Markov-switching ...

    • Nowcasting GDP in Real-Time: A Density Combination Approach 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Gerdrup, Karsten R.; Jore, Anne Sofie; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (Working Papers;11/2011, Working paper, 2011)
      In this paper we use U.S. real-time vintage data and produce combined density nowcasts for quarterly GDP growth from a system of three commonly used model classes. The density nowcasts are combined in two steps. First, a ...

    • Policy Analysis in Real Time Using IMF's Monetary Model 

      Akram, Q. Farooq (Working Papers;10/2010, Working paper, 2010)
      We investigate to what extent estimated relationships of the IMF’s monetary model and their policy implications are sample dependent. This model constitutes the core of the IMF’s financial programming models for developing ...

    • Real-Time Inflation Forecasting in a Changing World 

      Groen, Jan J. J.; Paap, Richard; Ravazzolo, Francesco (Working Papers;16/2009, Working paper, 2009)
      This paper revisits inflation forecasting using reduced form Phillips curve forecasts, i.e., inflation forecasts using activity and expectations variables. We propose a Phillips curve-type model that results from averaging ...

    • Residential Investment and Recession Predictability 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Anundsen, André K.; Herstad, Eyo I. (Working Papers;24/2017, Working paper, 2017)
      We assess the importance of residential investment in predicting economic recessions for an unbalanced panel of 12 OECD countries over the period 1960Q1-2014Q4. Our approach is to estimate various probit models with different ...