Now showing items 241-260 of 472

    • Failure Prediction of Norwegian Banks: A Logit Approach 

      Andersen, Henrik (Working Papers;2/2008, Working paper, 2008)
      Norges Bank has since 1989 been using a risk index for banks. The purpose of this risk index is to identify potential problem banks, and to obtain a general picture of the health of the banking industry. In 1994 the risk ...
    • Business Cycle Analysis and VARMA Models 

      Kascha, Christian; Mertens, Karel (Working Papers;5/2008, Working paper, 2008)
      Can long-run identified structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) discriminate between competing models in practice? Several authors have suggested SVARs fail partly because they are finite-order approximations to ...
    • Liquidity and the Business Cycle 

      Næs, Randi; Skjeltorp, Johannes A.; Ødegaard, Bernt Arne (Working Papers;11/2008, Working paper, 2008)
      We show evidence of a contemporaneous relation between stock market liquidity and the business cycle. Stock market liquidity worsen when the economy is slowing down, and this effect is most pronounced for small firms. Using ...
    • The Price Puzzle: Mixing the Temporary and Permanent Monetary Policy Shocks 

      Bache, Ida Wolden; Leitemo, Kai (Working Papers;18/2008, Working paper, 2008)
      We argue that the correct identification of monetary policy shocks in a vector autoregression requires that the identification scheme distinguishes between permanent and transitory monetary policy shocks. The permanent ...
    • RBCs and DSGEs: The Computational Approach to Business Cycle Theory and Evidence 

      Karagedikli, Özer; Matheson, Troy; Smith, Christie; Vahey, Shaun P. (Working Papers;17/2008, Working paper, 2008)
      Real Business Cycle (RBC) and Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) methods have become essential components of the macroeconomist’s toolkit. This literature review stresses recently developed techniques for ...
    • Communicating Monetary Policy Intentions: The Case of Norges Bank 

      Holmsen, Amund; Qvigstad, Jan F.; Røisland, Øistein; Solberg-Johansen, Kristin (Working Papers;20/2008, Working paper, 2008)
      Monetary policy works mainly through private agents’ expectations. How precisely future policy intentions are communicated has, according to theory, implications for the outcome of monetary policy. Norges Bank has gone ...
    • Does the Law of One Price Hold in International Financial Markets? Evidence from Tick Data 

      Akram, Q. Farooq; Rime, Dagfinn; Sarno, Lucio (Working Papers;19/2008, Working paper, 2008)
      This paper investigates the validity of the law of one price (LOP) in international financial markets by examining the frequency, size and duration of inter-market price differentials for borrowing and lending services ...
    • The Risk Components of Liquidity 

      Chollete, Lorán; Næs, Randi; Skjeltorp, Johannes A. (Working Papers;3/2008, Working paper, 2008)
      Does liquidity risk differ depending on our choice of liquidity proxy? Unlike literature that considers common liquidity variation, we focus on identifying different components of liquidity, statistically and economically, ...
    • Revealing the Preferences of the US Federal Reserve 

      Ilbas, Pelin (Working Papers;21/2008, Working paper, 2008)
      We use Bayesian methods to estimate the preferences of the US Federal Reserve by assuming that monetary policy is performed optimally under commitment since the mid-sixties. For this purpose, we distinguish between three ...
    • Combining Forecast Densities from VARs with Uncertain Instabilities 

      Jore, Anne Sofie; Mitchell, James; Vahey, Shaun P. (Working Papers;1/2008, Working paper, 2008)
      Clark and McCracken (2008) argue that combining real-time point forecasts from VARs of output, prices and interest rates improves point forecast accuracy in the presence of uncertain model instabilities. In this paper, we ...
    • Commodity Prices, Interest Rates and the Dollar 

      Akram, Q. Farooq (Working Papers;12/2008, Working paper, 2008)
      We investigate whether a decline in real interest rates and the US dollar contribute to higher commodity prices, and whether commodity prices tend to display overshooting behavior in response to changes in especially real ...
    • Liquidity at the Oslo Stock Exchange 

      Næs, Randi; Skjeltorp, Johannes A.; Ødegaard, Bernt Arne (Working Papers;9/2008, Working paper, 2008)
      We analyze the relationship between the long term development in liquidity at the Oslo Stock Exchange and the Norwegian economy for the period 1980 to 2007. We calculate different liquidity measures that captures various ...
    • The Power of Weather. Some Empirical Evidence on Predicting Day-Ahead Power Prices Through Weather Forecasts 

      Huurman, Christian; Ravazzolo, Francesco; Zhou, Chen (Working Papers;8/2008, Working paper, 2008)
      This paper examines the predictive power of weather for electricity prices in day-ahead markets in real time. We find that next-day weather forecasts improve the forecast accuracy of day-ahead electricity prices substantially, ...
    • Real and Financial Tradeoffs in Non-Listed Firms: Cash Flow Sensitivities and How They Change with Shocks to Firms' Main-Bank 

      Ostergaard, Charlotte; Sasson, Amir; Sørensen, Bent E. (Working Papers;27/2010, Working paper, 2010)
      We study how non-listed firms trade off financial, real, and distributive uses of cash. We show that firms' marginal value of cash (MVC) affects the mix of external and internal finance used to absorb fluctuations in cash ...
    • Letting the Anchor Go: Monetary Policy in Neutral Norway During World War I 

      Værholm, Monica; Øksendal, Lars Fredrik (Working Papers;28/2010, Working paper, 2010)
      Introduction: For later generations, August 1914 has become a watershed in monetary history. In a matter of days, the belligerent and neutral countries of Europe alike suspended the gold standard. The international monetary ...
    • Optimal Monetary Policy When Agents Are Learning 

      Molnár, Krisztina; Santoro, Sergio (Working Papers;8/2010, Working paper, 2010)
      We derive the optimal monetary policy in a sticky price model when private agents follow adaptive learning. We show that this slight departure from rationality has important implications for policy design. The central bank ...
    • Combining Predictive Densities Using Bayesian Filtering with Applications to Us Economics Data 

      Billio, Monica; Casarin, Roberto; Ravazzolo, Francesco; van Dijk, Herman K. (Working Papers;29/2010, Working paper, 2010)
      Using a Bayesian framework this paper provides a multivariate combination approach to prediction based on a distributional state space representation of predictive densities from alternative models. In the proposed approach ...
    • Why Do Firms Pay for Liquidity Provision in Limit Order Markets? 

      Skjeltorp, Johannes A.; Ødegaard, Bernt Arne (Working Papers;12/2010, Working paper, 2010)
      In recent years, a number of electronic limit order markets have reintroduced market makers for some securities (Designated Market Makers). This trend has mainly been initiated by financial intermediaries and listed firms ...
    • Revisiting the Importance of Non-Tradable Goods’ Prices in Cyclical Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations 

      Bache, Ida Wolden; Næss, Kjersti; Sveen, Tommy (Working Papers;3/2009, Working paper, 2009)
      In an influential paper Engel (1999. Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes, Journal of Political Economy 107, 507-538) argues that essentially all the fluctuations in the real exchange rate can be attributed to ...
    • Term Structure Forecasting Using Macro Factors and Forecast Combination 

      de Pooter, Michiel; Ravazzolo, Francesco; van Dijk, Dick (Working Papers;1/2010, Working paper, 2010)
      We examine the importance of incorporating macroeconomic information and, in particular, accounting for model uncertainty when forecasting the term structure of U.S.interest rates. We start off by analyzing and comparing ...