Arbeidsnotater / Working Papers: Recent submissions
Now showing items 261-280 of 472
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Investment-Specific Technology Shocks and Consumption
(Working Papers;30/2010, Working paper, 2010)Current business cycle models systematically underestimate the correlation between consumption and investment. One reason for this failure is that a positive investment-specific technology shock generally induces a negative ... -
Bagehot for Beginners: The Making of Lending of Last Resort Operations in the Mid-19th Century
(Working Papers;22/2009, Working paper, 2009)In this paper we survey the development of lending of last resort operations in the mid-19th century. We identify and document critical dimensions of the extension of lending of last resort functions, and also develop ... -
Wage Rigidity, Institutions, and Inflation
(Working Papers;2/2009, Working paper, 2009)A number of recent studies have documented extensive downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) for job stayers in many OECD countries. However, DNWR for individual workers may induce downward rigidity or “a floor” for the ... -
Are Bank Lending Shocks Important for Economic Fluctuations?
(Working Papers;27/2009, Working paper, 2009)We analyze the importance of bank lending shocks on real activity in Norway and the UK, using structural VARs and based on quarterly data for the past 21 years. The VARs are identified using a combination of sign and ... -
Price Stability and Inflation Persistence During the International Gold Standard: The Scandinavian Case
(Working Papers;20/2009, Working paper, 2009)In the 1870s the three Scandinavian countries Denmark, Norway and Sweden formed the Scandinavian Currency Union. Both the adoption of gold and the monetary union were supposed to lead to price stability in and between these ... -
Mental Accounting in the Housing Market
(Working Papers;20/2010, Working paper, 2010)We report evidence that salience may have economically significant effects on homeowners' borrowing behavior, through a bias in favour of less salient but more costly loans. We outline a simple model in which some consumers ... -
Conditional Forecasts in DSGE Models
(Working Papers;7/2010, Working paper, 2010)New-generation DSGE models are sometimes misspecified in dimensions that matter for their forecasting performance. The paper suggests one way to improve the forecasts of a DSGE model using a conditioning information that ... -
Government Spending Shocks and Rule-Of-Thumb Consumers: The Role of Steady State Inequality
(Working Papers;14/2010, Working paper, 2010)Galí, López-Salido, and Vallés (2007) suggest that because part of the population follow a rule-of-thumb by which they spend their entire disposable income each period, private consumption responds positively to deficit-financed ... -
Oil and Us GDP: A Real-Time Out-Of-Sample Examination
(Working Papers;18/2010, Working paper, 2010)We study the real-time Granger-causal relationship between crude oil prices and US GDP growth through a simulated out-of-sample (OOS) forecasting exercise; we also provide strong evidence of in-sample predictability from ... -
Do Re-Election Probabilities Influence Public Investment?
(Working Papers;13/2009, Working paper, 2009)We identify exogenous variation in incumbent policymakers’ re-election probabilities and explore empirically how this variation affects the incumbents’ investment in physical capital. Our results indicate that a higher ... -
Information Sharing and Information Acquisition in Credit Markets
(Working Papers;24/2010, Working paper, 2010)Since information asymmetries have been identified as an important source of bank profits, it may seem that the establishment of information sharing (e.g., introducing credit bureaus or public registers) will lead to lower ... -
The Discursive Dilemma in Monetary Policy
(Working Papers;5/2010, Working paper, 2010)The discursive dilemma implies that the policy decision of a board of policymakers depends on whether the board reaches the decision by voting directly on policy (conclusion-based procedure), or by voting on the premises ... -
The Taylor Principle in a Medium-Scale Macroeconomic Model
(Working Papers;9/2010, Working paper, 2010)The Taylor Principle is often used to explain macroeconomic stability (see, e.g., Clarida et al. 2000). The reason is that this simple principle guarantees determinacy, i.e., local uniqueness of rational expectations ... -
Forecast Accuracy and Economic Gains from Bayesian Model Averaging Using Time Varying Weight
(Working Papers;10/2009, Working paper, 2009)Several Bayesian model combination schemes, including some novel approaches that simultaneously allow for parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and robust time varying model weights, are compared in terms of forecast ... -
Real-Time Inflation Forecasting in a Changing World
(Working Papers;16/2009, Working paper, 2009)This paper revisits inflation forecasting using reduced form Phillips curve forecasts, i.e., inflation forecasts using activity and expectations variables. We propose a Phillips curve-type model that results from averaging ... -
Resolving the Financial Crisis: Are We Heeding the Lessons from the Nordics?
(Working Papers;17/2010, Working paper, 2010)How does the management and resolution of the current crisis compare with the response of the Nordic countries in the early 1990s, widely regarded as exemplary? We argue that, while intervention has been prompter, the ... -
The Historical Connection Between Short Term Output and Prices in a Small Open Economy
(Working Papers;21/2009, Working paper, 2009)According to a Keynesian view, short term output fluctuations are normally demand side led. Since prices reflect demand, they should mirror output fluctuations. Thus, prices and output are expected to move in the same ... -
Mean Reversion in Profitability for Non-Listed Firms
(Working Papers;29/2009, Working paper, 2009)The presence of mean reversion in profitability at the firm level is important for valuation and prediction of growth and earnings. We investigate the mean reversion in accounting profitability for Norwegian non-listed ... -
The Zero Lower Bound on the Interest Rate and a Neo-Classical Phillips Curve
(Working Papers;13/2010, Working paper, 2010)With sticky prices, optimizing agents and money in the utility function, I derive the exact analytical solution for optimal monetary policy given a zero lower bound (ZLB) on the interest rate. The Phillips curve is ... -
The Political Economy of Fiscal Deficits and Government Production
(Working Papers;7/2009, Working paper, 2009)This paper analyzes a framework where policymakers decide how to spend public resources on physical capital and labor in order to produce two public goods. Candidate policymakers disagree about which goods to produce, and ...