Arbeidsnotater / Working Papers: Nye registreringer

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    • Bank Regulation and Bank Crisis 

      Berg, Sigbjørn Atle; Eitrheim, Øyvind (Working Papers;18/2009, Working paper, 2009)
      The Norwegian experiences of the past thirty years illustrate what we believe are two general tendencies in bank regulation. The first one is that a bank crisis will tend to focus regulators' minds and lead to stricter ...

    • Lumpy Investment and State-Dependent Pricing in General Equilibrium 

      Reiter, Michael; Sveen, Tommy; Weinke, Lutz (Working Papers;5/2009, Working paper, 2009)
      The lumpy nature of plant-level investment is generally not taken into account in the context of monetary theory (see, e.g., Christiano et al. 2005 and Woodford 2005). We formulate a generalized (S,s) pricing and investment ...

    • Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Overshooting: Dornbusch Was Right After All 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C. (Working Papers;9/2009, Working paper, 2009)
      Dornbusch’s exchange rate overshooting hypothesis is a central building block in international macroeconomics. Yet, empirical studies of monetary policy have typically found exchange rate effects that are inconsistent with ...

    • Macro Modelling with Many Models 

      Bache, Ida Wolden; Mitchell, James; Ravazzolo, Francesco; Vahey, Shaun P. (Working Papers;15/2009, Working paper, 2009)
      We argue that the next generation of macro modellers at Inflation Targeting central banks should adapt a methodology from the weather forecasting literature known as `ensemble modelling'. In this approach, uncertainty about ...

    • Overconfidence, Monetary Policy Committees and Chairman Dominance 

      Claussen, Carl Andreas; Matsen, Egil; Røisland, Øistein; Torvik, Ragnar (Working Papers;17/2009, Working paper, 2009)
      We suggest that overconfidence among policymakers explains why formal decision power over monetary policy is given to committees, while much of the real power to set policy remains with central bank chairmen. Overconfidence ...

    • Fiscal Stimulus in a Credit Crunch: The Role of Wage Rigidity 

      Furlanetto, Francesco (Working Papers;8/2009, Working paper, 2009)
      In this paper we study the impact of an expansion in public spending in a credit constrained economy with sticky wages. The flexible wage version of the model implies strong expansionary effects on output and consumption ...

    • Loose Commitment in Medium-Scale Macroeconomic Models: Theory and an Application 

      Debortoli, Davide; Maih, Junior; Nunes, Ricardo (Working Papers;25/2010, Working paper, 2010)
      This paper proposes a method and a toolkit for solving optimal policy with imperfect commitment in linear quadratic models. As opposed to the existing literature, our method can be employed in medium- and large-scale models ...

    • Voting When the Stakes Are High 

      Andersen, Jørgen Juel; Fiva, Jon H.; Natvik, Gisle James (Working Papers;15/2010, Working paper, 2010)
      Rational choice theories of electoral participation stress that an individual's decision to vote depends on her expected net benefit from doing so. If this instrumental motive is relevant, then turnout should be higher in ...

    • The Relationship Between Bankruptcy Risk and Growth for Non-Listed Firms 

      Nordal, Kjell Bjørn; Næs, Randi (Working Papers;31/2010, Working paper, 2010)
      We investigate the relationship between bankruptcy risk and expected future sales growth for Norwegian non-listed firms for the period 1988-2007. We find that firms with high bankruptcy risk also have high expected future ...

    • Norwegian Banks in a Recession: Procyclical Implications of Basel II 

      Andersen, Henrik (Working Papers;4/2009, Working paper, 2009)
      While the new capital adequacy framework, Basel II, aims to make the banks’ capital requirements more sensitive to the underlying risk of the assets, it may also introduce an additional source of procyclicality in the ...

    • The Information Content of Market Liquidity: An Empirical Analysis of Liquidity at the Oslo Stock Exchange? 

      Skjeltorp, Johannes A.; Ødegaard, Bernt Arne (Working Papers;26/2009, Working paper, 2009)
      We investigate the information content of aggregate stock market liquidity and ask whether it may be a useful realtime indicator, both for financial stress, and real economic activity in Norway. We describe the development ...

    • Banking Competition, Monitoring Incentives and Financial Stability 

      Vo, Thi Quynh Anh (Working Papers;16/2010, Working paper, 2010)
      This paper addresses the desirability of competition in banking industry. In a model where banks compete on both deposit and loan markets and where banks can use monitoring technology to control entrepreneurs' behavior, ...

    • Weights and Pools for a Norwegian Density Combination 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Gerdrup, Karsten R.; Smith, Christie; Jore, Anne Sofie; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (Working Papers;6/2010, Working paper, 2010)
      We apply a suite of models to produce quasi-real-time density forecasts of Norwegian GDP and inflation, and evaluate different combination and selection methods using the Kullback-Leibler information criterion (KLIC). We ...

    • Evaluating Ensemble Density Combination - Forecasting GDP and Inflation 

      Gerdrup, Karsten R.; Jore, Anne Sofie; Smith, Christie; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (Working Papers;19/2009, Working paper, 2009)
      Forecast combination has become popular in central banks as a means to improve forecasts and to alleviate the risk of selecting poor models. However, if a model suite is populated with many similar models, then the weight ...

    • The International Monetary System, 1844-1870: Arbitrage, Efficiency, Liquidity 

      Ugolini, Stefano (Working Papers;23/2010, Working paper, 2010)
      This paper analyses the architecture of the international monetary system which preceded the international gold standard (1844-1870). It builds on a newly-created database made up of more than 100,000 weekly observations ...

    • The Origins of Foreign Exchange Policy: The National Bank of Belgium and the Quest for Monetary Independence in the 1850s 

      Ugolini, Stefano (Working Papers;22/2010, Working paper, 2010)
      Can the central bank of a small open economy be mandated with the maintenance of both fixed exchange rates and monetary independence, and still succeed in the long term? Looking at a pioneering experiment put in place by ...

    • Why Do People Give Less Weight to Advice the Further It Is from Their Initial Opinion? 

      Ravazzolo, Francesco; Røisland, Øistein (Working Papers;4/2010, Working paper, 2010)
      Experimental studies on decision making based on advice received from others find that the weight put on the advice is negatively related to the distance between the advice and the decisionmaker's initial opinion. In this ...

    • What Factors Affect the Oslo Stock Exchange? 

      Næs, Randi; Skjeltorp, Johannes A.; Ødegaard, Bernt Arne (Working Papers;24/2009, Working paper, 2009)
      This paper analyzes return patterns and determinants at the Oslo Stock Exchange (OSE) in the period 1980-2006. We find that a three-factor model containing the market, a size factor and a liquidity factor provides a ...

    • Interbank Overnight Interest Rates - Gains from Systemic Importance 

      Akram, Q. Farooq; Christophersen, Casper (Working Papers;11/2010, Working paper, 2010)
      We study overnight interbank interest rates paid by banks in Norway over the period 2006-2009. We observe large variations in interest rates across banks and over time. During the financial crisis, the interest rates are ...

    • The Role of House Prices in the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism in Small Open Economies 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Jacobsen, Dag Henning (Working Papers;6/2009, Working paper, 2009)
      We analyse the role of house prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Norway, Sweden and the UK using structural VARs. A solution is proposed to the endogeneity problem of identifying hocks to interest rates ...