Staff Memo: Recent submissions
Now showing items 1-20 of 309
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Climate risk and the Norwegian exchange rate
(Staff Memo;4/2024, Working paper, 2024)This study discusses whether climate risk, in the form of physical risk and transition risk, may cause an appreciation or depreciation of the Norwegian krone. Exchange rates reflect relative prices between money, goods, ... -
New microdata for loan defaults provide better estimates of banks’ credit losses
(Staff Memo;10/2024, Working paper, 2024)Loans to non-financial firms are the main source of banks’ losses. In order to assess credit risk, Norges Bank has long used models to assess firms’ bankruptcy probability. However, the banks’ credit losses are more closely ... -
The basic balance – an adjusted current account balance
(Staff Memo;6/2024, Working paper, 2024) -
The driving forces behind households’ accumulation of consumer debt
(Staff Memo;8/2024, Working paper, 2024)In this Staff Memo we explore the determinants of unsecured consumer debt among Norwegian households using detailed administrative data from 2020 to 2024. We identify a set of key drivers, including life-cycle patterns, ... -
Charting the upstream: An indicator for imported input goods prices
(Staff Memo;5/2024, Working paper, 2024)This Staff Memo presents an indicator used for monitoring and forecasting inflation at Norges Bank. The indicator is designed to capture international price impulses that impact the input costs of domestic firms. Our ... -
Record increase in payment remarks: A red flag for Norwegian firms?
(Staff Memo;9/2024, Working paper, 2024)This staff memo documents a detailed analysis of the payment remark database to better understand whether the recent increase in payment remarks signals an impending wave of bankruptcies. We find that the number of ... -
Home energy conversion can be a net cost for the average household
(Staff Memo;7/2024, Working paper, 2024)Energy consumption in homes accounts for over 30 percent of annual Norwegian electricity consumption. The government has set targets to reduce energy consumption in the housing sector. Measures that can increase energy ... -
Structural liquidity: What has driven the historical development and what might occur in the years ahead?
(Staff Memo;2/2024, Working paper, 2024) -
Foretakenes omstilling til lavere klimagassutslipp og risikoen i norske banker
(Staff Memo;3/2024, Working paper, 2024)Klimaomstilling vil i en periode kunne øke foretakenes kostnader og redusere verdien av deres eiendeler. Hvis vi legger til grunn at bankenes sammensetning av utlån holdes konstant, kan kostnadsøkningen øke tapene i bankene. ... -
Nye mikrodata for misligholdte lån gir bedre anslag for bankenes utlånstap
(Staff Memo;10/2024, Working paper, 2024)Lån til ikke-finansielle foretak er den største kilden til tap i bankene. For å vurdere kredittrisikoen, har Norges Bank i lang tid benyttet modeller for foretakenes konkurssannsynligheter. Bankenes utlånstap er imidlertid ... -
Employment trends in Norway
(Staff Memo;1/2024, Working paper, 2024)This paper outlines the recently developed method for assessing the trend Level in employment rates adopted by Norges Bank. The approach employs a Bayesian VAR to decompose disaggregated employment data into trend and ... -
Strukturell likviditet: Hva har drevet utviklingen historisk og hva kan skje fremover?
(Staff Memo;2/2024, Working paper, 2024) -
Grunnbalansen - en justert driftsbalanse
(Staff Memo;6/2024, Working paper, 2024) -
Klimarisiko og kronekursen
(Staff Memo;4/2024, Working paper, 2024)Denne studien drøfter om den norske kronen kan styrke eller svekke seg som følge av klimarisiko i form av fysisk risiko og overgangsrisiko. Valutakurser reflekterer relative priser mellom ulike lands penger, varer og ... -
Energiomstilling av bolig kan bli en netto kostnad for gjennomsnittshusholdningen
(Staff Memo;7/2024, Working paper, 2024)Energiforbruk i bolig utgjør over 30 prosent av årlig norsk bruk av elektrisitet. Regjeringen har lagt fram mål om at energiforbruket i boligsektoren skal ned. Tiltak som kan øke energieffektiviteten i boligsektoren er ... -
Central bank digital currency – implications for liquidity management and monetary policy
(Staff Memo;19/2023, Working paper, 2023)The paper discusses potential effects of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) on liquidity and monetary policy. -
Norwegian banks’ net interest income and macroeconomic developments over the past 30 years
(Staff Memo;17/2023, Working paper, 2023)Banks’ profitability is their first line of defence against losses, and net interest income is banks’ main source of revenue. Since the policy rate hikes began in 2021, net interest income has increased substantially ... -
Does high debt make households more vulnerable? : A survey of empirical literature using microdata
(Staff Memo;3/2023, Working paper, 2023) -
Does structural liquidity have a greater impact on the Nibor premium than earlier?
(Staff Memo;14/2023, Working paper, 2023)In recent years, the liquidity premium between the Norwegian krone (NOK) and the US dollar (USD) in the FX swap market, the so-called OIS basis, has accounted for a larger share of the Nibor premium than earlier. This has ... -
The turbulence in the Norwegian money market in autumn 2022
(Staff Memo;15/2023, Working paper, 2023)Record-high payments of petroleum tax in October 2022, and the accompanying fall in structural liquidity, resulted in a marked rise in the shortest-term Norwegian money market rates. In this staff memo we describe how ...