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dc.contributor.authorBjørnland, Hilde C.
dc.contributor.authorThorsrud, Leif Anders
dc.contributor.authorZahiri, Sepideh Khayati
dc.description.abstractOur analysis suggests; they do not! To arrive at this conclusion we construct a real-time data set of interest rate projections from central banks in three small open economies; New Zealand, Norway, and Sweden, and analyze if revisions to these projections (i.e., forward guidance) can be predicted by timely information. Doing so, we find a systematic role for forward looking international indicators in predicting the revisions to the interest rate projections in all countries. In contrast, using similar indexes for the domestic economy yields largely insignificant results. Furthermore, we find that revisions to forward guidance matter. Using a VAR identified with external instruments based on forecast errors from the predictive regressions, we show that the responses to output, inflation, the exchange rate and asset returns resemble those one typically associates with a conventional monetary policy shock.nb_NO
dc.publisherNorges Banknb_NO
dc.relation.ispartofseriesWorking Papers;19/2016
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internasjonal*
dc.subjectJEL: C11nb_NO
dc.subjectJEL: C53nb_NO
dc.subjectJEL: C55nb_NO
dc.subjectJEL: E58nb_NO
dc.subjectJEL: F17nb_NO
dc.subjectmonetary policynb_NO
dc.subjectinterest rate pathnb_NO
dc.subjectforecast revisionsnb_NO
dc.subjectglobal indicatorsnb_NO
dc.titleDo Central Banks Respond Timely to Developments in the Global Economy?nb_NO
dc.typeWorking papernb_NO
dc.subject.nsiVDP::Samfunnsvitenskap: 200::Økonomi: 210::Samfunnsøkonomi: 212nb_NO

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Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internasjonal
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internasjonal