Forecasting in Norges Bank

Abstract

Norges Bank’s forecasts of economic developments form an important part of the basis for monetary policy. The projections of economic variables and Norges Bank’s interest rate forecast are interdependent. Current information about economic developments, judgment and various economic models are all employed in our forecasting work. The current economic situation and developments in the next few quarters are assessed first, and then we determine the long-term impact of driving forces in the economy. This article describes the work on forecasting.