dc.contributor.author | Gerdrup, Karsten R. | |
dc.contributor.author | Nicolaisen, Jon | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2018-08-02T13:27:01Z | |
dc.date.available | 2018-08-02T13:27:01Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2011 | |
dc.identifier.isbn | 978-82-7553-612-7 | |
dc.identifier.issn | 1504-2596 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2507330 | |
dc.description.abstract | Macroeconomic models are important ingredients in the monetary policy process, and, in the Norwegian case, projecting a forward interest rate path. In this paper we argue that when deciding on a model strategy, it is crucial to consider the purpose of models. If the purpose is to understand basic mechanisms in the economy and implications of economic policy, we need a set of models that highlight these features. If the purpose is to forecast short-term developments, a different set of models may be required. Given the complexity of the real world, we argue that it is better to provide the policymakers with a good characterization of uncertainty instead of only providing point forecasts, i.e. it is better to be "roughly right" than "exactly wrong". A robust strategy for handling uncertainty should be an inherent part of the preferred system of models. | nb_NO |
dc.language.iso | eng | nb_NO |
dc.publisher | Norges Bank | nb_NO |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | Staff Memo;6/2011 | |
dc.rights | Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internasjonal | * |
dc.rights | Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internasjonal | * |
dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.no | * |
dc.subject | forecasting | nb_NO |
dc.subject | forecast combination | nb_NO |
dc.subject | monetary policy | nb_NO |
dc.subject | robustness | nb_NO |
dc.title | On the Purpose of Models - the Norges Bank Experience | nb_NO |
dc.type | Working paper | nb_NO |
dc.subject.nsi | VDP::Samfunnsvitenskap: 200::Økonomi: 210 | nb_NO |
dc.source.pagenumber | 29 | nb_NO |