How Many Are Unemployed?

Abstract

The gap between the official unemployment measures in Norway has recently been unusually wide. In this commentary, we discuss possible explanations for this gap. Part of the difference can be attributed to the fact that the Labour Force Survey (LFS) has captured a marked rise in youth unemployment, a group that is less inclined to register at the Norwegian Welfare and Labour Administration (NAV), but besides that we do not find a full explanation of the gap. In the light of other information and historical relationships in Norway, the development in NAV unemployment appears fairly likely. As the LFS is a sample survey, there will always be a measure of uncertainty associated with the figures. At the same time, the threshold for being counted as unemployed is in practice somewhat lower in the LFS than in NAV.