Norges Banks publikasjonsserier / Norges Bank publication series: Recent submissions
Now showing items 1-20 of 1476
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Mitigating the impact of fuel subsidy removal in an oil-producing emerging economy
(Working paper;15/2024, Working paper, 2024)This paper examines the implications of fuel subsidy removal in an oil-producing economy, focusing on the central bank’s response to volatile oil prices. Using a Markov-switching dynamic stochastic general equilibrium ... -
Stock market wealth and entrepreneurship
(Working paper;16/2024, Working paper, 2024)We use data on stock portfolios of Norwegian households to show that stock market wealth increases entrepreneurship by relaxing financial constraints. Our research design isolates idiosyncratic variation in household-level ... -
Quantile combination : an application to US GDP growth forecasts
(Working paper;14/2024, Working paper, 2024)We propose an easy-to-implement framework for combining quantile forecasts, applied to forecasting GDP growth. Using quantile regressions, our combination scheme assigns weights to individual forecasts from different ... -
Monetary policy shock, financial frictions and heterogeneous firms
(Working paper;13/2024, Working paper, 2024)This paper examines the influence of financial constraints on the transmission of monetary policy shocks across heterogeneous firms. To this end, we develop a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model incorporating ... -
Unveiling inflation: oil shocks, supply chain pressures, and expectations
(Working paper;12/2024, Working paper, 2024)This paper demonstrates that inflation expectations have acted as significant amplifiers of recent global demand and supply shocks, thereby playing a crucial role in maintaining inflation at relatively high levels. This ... -
Cross-border bank flows, regional household credit booms and bank risk-taking
(Working paper;10/2024, Working paper, 2024)This paper provides novel micro-level evidence that cross-border bank flows are important for households’ access to credit not only in emerging markets but also in advanced economies. These foreign bank flows can drive ... -
The consumption expenditure response to unemployment: evidence from Norwegian households
(Working paper;6/2024, Working paper, 2024)We use detailed Norwegian administrative data to identify the income loss associated with the onset of unemployment and analyze the corresponding consumption expenditure response and the extent to which this response is ... -
On Bayesian filtering for Markov regime switching models
(Working paper;8/2024, Working paper, 2024)This paper presents a framework for empirical analysis of dynamic macroeconomic models using Bayesian filtering, with a specific focus on the state-space formulation of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models ... -
Taylor rules with endogenous regimes
(Working paper;9/2024, Working paper, 2024)The Fed’s policy rule switches during the different phases of the business cycle. This finding is established using a dynamic mixture model to estimate regime-dependent Taylor-type rules on US quarterly data from 1960 to ... -
What drives the recent surge in inflation? The historical decomposition roller coaster
(Working paper;7/2024, Working paper, 2024)What drives the recent inflation surge? To answer this question, one must decompose inflation fluctuations into the contribution of structural shocks. We document how whimsical such a historical shock decomposition can be ... -
The bias of the ECB inflation projections: a state-dependent analysis
(Working paper;11/2024, Working paper, 2024)We test for state-dependent bias in the European Central Bank’s inflation projections. We show that the ECB tends to underpredict when the observed inflation rate at the time of forecasting is higher than an estimated ... -
The dynamics of stock market participation
(Working paper;5/2024, Working paper, 2024)We document novel facts on the exit and reentry margins of stock market participation by retail investors using detailed administrative data on every Norwegian resident from 1993 to 2016. Contrary to the conventional view ... -
Banking on deposit relationships: implications for hold-up problems in the loan market
(Working paper;4/2024, Working paper, 2024)Theory suggests that by lending to a firm, inside banks gain an informational advantage over non-lender outside banks. This informational gap hinders borrowers from switching lenders due to a winner’s curse faced by competing ... -
Macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy under an energy supply shock
(Working paper;3/2024, Working paper, 2024)We study the potential effects on the real economy and welfare of four fiscal policy responses to an energy supply shock: energy vouchers to all households, only to lowincome households, or to non-energy goods producers, ... -
The drivers of emission reductions in the European carbon market
(Working paper;1/2024, Working paper, 2024)This paper studies the drivers of emission reductions in the carbon market of the European Union Emission Trading System (EU ETS) since its inception in 2005. We introduce a novel empirical framework that facilitates the ... -
The corporate real effects of CIP deviations
(Working paper;2/2024, Working paper, 2024)We show corporate real effects from Covered Interest Parity (CIP) deviations exploiting administrative data from Norway as well as CIP deviation shocks. Banks with access to U.S. money markets strongly increase USD global ... -
Climate risk and the Norwegian exchange rate
(Staff Memo;4/2024, Working paper, 2024)This study discusses whether climate risk, in the form of physical risk and transition risk, may cause an appreciation or depreciation of the Norwegian krone. Exchange rates reflect relative prices between money, goods, ... -
New microdata for loan defaults provide better estimates of banks’ credit losses
(Staff Memo;10/2024, Working paper, 2024)Loans to non-financial firms are the main source of banks’ losses. In order to assess credit risk, Norges Bank has long used models to assess firms’ bankruptcy probability. However, the banks’ credit losses are more closely ... -
The basic balance – an adjusted current account balance
(Staff Memo;6/2024, Working paper, 2024) -
The driving forces behind households’ accumulation of consumer debt
(Staff Memo;8/2024, Working paper, 2024)In this Staff Memo we explore the determinants of unsecured consumer debt among Norwegian households using detailed administrative data from 2020 to 2024. We identify a set of key drivers, including life-cycle patterns, ...