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Exchange Rate Forecasting, Order Flow and Macroeconomic Information
(Working Papers;2/2007, Working paper, 2007)This paper investigates the empirical relation between order flow and macroeconomic information in the foreign exchange market, and the ability of microstructure models based on order flow to outperform a naive random walk ... -
Exchange Rates, Interest Rates and the Global Carry Trade
(Working Papers;14/2017, Working paper, 2017)We empirically examine how the global carry trade affects the dynamics of spot exchange rates and interest rates across 13 countries from 2000, through the world financial crisis, until the end of 2011. Our model identifies ... -
Executive Labor Market Frictions, Corporate Bankruptcy and CEO Careers
(Working paper;15/2021, Working paper, 2021)CEOs of large firms filing for bankruptcy are more likely to exit the executive labor market after bankruptcy and experience substantial compensation losses (Eckbo et al., 2016). While the fear of reputational scarring can ... -
Expectations switching in a DSGE model of the UK
(Working Paper;4/2020, Working paper, 2020)Rational expectations (RE) has been dominant both in the economic literature and in the macromodels routinely used in central banks. The RE assumption has recently come under attack as one of the drawbacks of the Dynamic ... -
Explaining Deviations from Okun’s Law
(Working paper;4/2022, Working paper, 2022)Despite its stability over time, as for any statistical relationship, Okun’s law is subject to deviations that can be large at times. In this paper, we provide a mapping between residuals in Okun’s regressions and structural ... -
Explaining Interest Rate Decisions When the MPC Members Believe in Different Stories
(Working Papers;7/2013, Working paper, 2013)Modern central banks do not only announce the interest rate decision, they also communicate a "story" that explains why they reached the particular decision. When decisions are made by a committee, it could be difficult ... -
Explaining the Boom-Bust Cycle in the U.S. Housing Market: A Reverse-Engineering Approach
(Working Papers;11/2015, Working paper, 2015)We use a simple quantitative asset pricing model to "reverse-engineer" the sequences of stochastic shocks to housing demand and lending standards that are needed to exactly replicate the boom-bust patterns in U.S. household ... -
Explaining the Low US Inflation – Coincidence or “New Economy”? Evidence Based on a Wage-Price Spiral
(Working Papers;2/2001, Working paper, 2001)We study possible factors behind the subdued inflation in the United States since the mid-1990s. A standard expectations-augmented Phillips curve does not exhibit structural breaks. However, a wage-price spiral comprising ... -
Failure Prediction of Norwegian Banks: A Logit Approach
(Working Papers;2/2008, Working paper, 2008)Norges Bank has since 1989 been using a risk index for banks. The purpose of this risk index is to identify potential problem banks, and to obtain a general picture of the health of the banking industry. In 1994 the risk ... -
Fertility Cost, Intergenerational Labor Division, and Female Employment
(Working Paper;3/2019, Working paper, 2019)China has set to increase the minimum retirement age, to ease the pressure from pension expenditure and the falling labor supply caused by the aging population. However, policy debates have so far neglected the crucial ... -
Financial Crises and Monetary Expansion
(Working Papers;21/2011, Working paper, 2011)On the basis of data from the Historical Monetary Statistics-project by Norges Bank, the present paper serves a threefold purpose. In the first place it gives an overview of financial crisis in Norway from her independence ... -
Financial Globalization and Bank Lending : The Limits of Domestic Monetary Policy?
(Working papers;4/2018, Working paper, 2018)We empirically analyze how bank lending reacts to monetary policy in the presence of global financial flows. Employing a unique and novel dataset of the funding modes and currency composition of the full population of ... -
Financial Imbalances, Crisis Probability and Monetary Policy in Norway
(Working Papers;21/2017, Working paper, 2017)We assess the strength of the impact of a monetary policy shock on financial crisis probability in Norway. Policy effects go via the interest rate impact on credit, house prices and banks’ wholesale funding. We find that ... -
Financing Japan’s World War II Occupation of Southeast Asia
(Working Papers;2/2013, Working paper, 2013)This paper analyzes how Japan financed its World War II occupation of Southeast Asia, the transfer of resources to Japan, and the monetary and inflation consequences of Japanese policies. In Malaya, Burma, Indonesia and ... -
Fire Sales, Indirect Contagion and Systemic Stress Testing
(Working Papers;2/2017, Working paper, 2017)We present a framework for quantifying the impact of fi re sales in a network of financial institutions with common asset holdings, subject to leverage or capital constraints. Asset losses triggered by macro-shocks may ... -
Firm-Specific Capital and Welfare
(Working Papers;4/2006, Working paper, 2006)What are the consequences for monetary policy design implied by the fact that price setting and investment takes typically place simultaneously at the firm level? To address this question we analyze simple (constrained) ... -
Firm-Specific Capital, Nominal Rigidities, and the Taylor Principle
(Working Papers;6/2006, Working paper, 2006)In the presence of firm-specific capital the Taylor principle can generate multiple equilibria. Sveen and Weinke (2005b) obtain that result in the context of a Calvo-style sticky price model. One potential criticism is ... -
Firm-Specific Investment, Sticky Prices, and the Taylor Principle
(Working Papers;12/2004, Working paper, 2004)According to the Taylor principle a central bank should adjust the nominal interest rate by more than one for one in response to changes in current inflation. Most of the existing literature supports the view that by ... -
Fiscal Policy Under Inflation Targeting
(Working Papers;15/2000, Working paper, 2000)The paper discusses the role of fiscal policy as an instrument for macroeconomic stabilisation when monetary policy pursues inflation targeting. Within a theoretical model of an open economy with a traded and non-traded ... -
Fiscal Shocks and Real Rigidities
(Working Papers;10/2008, Working paper, 2008)In this paper we show that empirically plausible results on the effects of fiscal shocks in Galí, López-Salido and Vallés (2007) rely on a high degree of price stickiness and a large percentage of financially constrained ...