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Firm-Specific Investment, Sticky Prices, and the Taylor Principle
(Working Papers;12/2004, Working paper, 2004)According to the Taylor principle a central bank should adjust the nominal interest rate by more than one for one in response to changes in current inflation. Most of the existing literature supports the view that by ... -
Fiscal Policy Under Inflation Targeting
(Working Papers;15/2000, Working paper, 2000)The paper discusses the role of fiscal policy as an instrument for macroeconomic stabilisation when monetary policy pursues inflation targeting. Within a theoretical model of an open economy with a traded and non-traded ... -
Fiscal Shocks and Real Rigidities
(Working Papers;10/2008, Working paper, 2008)In this paper we show that empirically plausible results on the effects of fiscal shocks in Galí, López-Salido and Vallés (2007) rely on a high degree of price stickiness and a large percentage of financially constrained ... -
Fiscal Stimulus in a Credit Crunch: The Role of Wage Rigidity
(Working Papers;8/2009, Working paper, 2009)In this paper we study the impact of an expansion in public spending in a credit constrained economy with sticky wages. The flexible wage version of the model implies strong expansionary effects on output and consumption ... -
Flexible Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability: Is It Enough to Stabilise Inflation and Output?
(Working Papers;7/2006, Working paper, 2006)We investigate empirically whether a central bank can promote financial stability by stabilizing inflation and output, and whether additional stabilization of asset prices and credit growth would enhance financial stability ... -
Forbearance Patterns in the Post-Crisis Period
(Working Paper;11/2018, Working paper, 2018)Using supervisory loan-level data on corporate loans, we show that banks facing high levels of non-performing loans relative to their capital and provisions were more likely to grant forbearance measures to the riskiest ... -
Forecast Accuracy and Economic Gains from Bayesian Model Averaging Using Time Varying Weight
(Working Papers;10/2009, Working paper, 2009)Several Bayesian model combination schemes, including some novel approaches that simultaneously allow for parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and robust time varying model weights, are compared in terms of forecast ... -
Forecast Densities for Economic Aggregates from Disaggregate Ensembles
(Working Papers;2/2010, Working paper, 2010)We propose a methodology for producing forecast densities for economic aggregates based on disaggregate evidence. Our ensemble predictive methodology utilizes a linear mixture of experts framework to combine the forecast ... -
Forecast Density Combinations of Dynamic Models and Data Driven Portfolio Strategies
(Working Paper;10/2018, Working paper, 2018)A dynamic asset-allocation model is specified in probabilistic terms as a combination of return distributions resulting from multiple pairs of dynamic models and portfolio strategies based on momentum patterns in US industry ... -
Forecast Density Combinations with Dynamic Learning for Large Data Sets in Economics and Finance
(Working Paper;7/2019, Working paper, 2019)A flexible forecast density combination approach is introduced that can deal with large data sets. It extends the mixture of experts approach by allowing for model set incompleteness and dynamic learning of combination ... -
Forecast Uncertainty in the Neighborhood of the Effective Lower Bound: How Much Asymmetry Should We Expect?
(Working Papers;13/2016, Working paper, 2016)The lower bound on interest rates has restricted the impact of conventional monetary policies over recent years and could continue to do so in the near future, with the decline in natural real rates not predicted to reverse ... -
Forecasting Cash Use in Legal and Illegal Activities
(Working Papers;14/2000, Working paper, 2000)A general econometric model is developed and used to estimate the share of cash in consumer point-of-sale transactions in Norway over 1980-99. The share of cash fell from 90% during the 1980s to 50% in 1999, primarily due ... -
Forecasting Commodity Currencies: The Role of Fundamentals with Short-Lived Predictive Content
(Working Papers;14/2015, Working paper, 2015)Recent evidence highlights that commodity price changes exhibit a short-lived, yet robust contemporaneous effect on commodity currencies, which is mainly detectable in daily-frequency data. We use MIDAS models in a Bayesian ... -
Forecasting GDP with Global Components. This Time Is Different
(Working Papers;5/2015, Working paper, 2015)A long strand of literature has shown that the world has become more global. Yet, the recent Great Global Recession turned out to be hard to predict, with forecasters across the world committing large forecast errors. We ... -
Forecasting Inflation with an Uncertain Output Gap
(Working Papers;2/2006, Working paper, 2006)The output gap is a crucial concept in the monetary policy framework, indicating demand pressure that generates inflation. However, its definition and estimation raise a number of theoretical and empirical questions. This ... -
Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables Using Disaggregate Survey Data
(Working Papers;4/2011, Working paper, 2011)We assess the forecast ability of Norges Bank’s regional survey for inflation, GDP growth and the unemployment rate in Norway. We propose several factor models based on regional and sectoral information given by the survey. ... -
Forecasting Recessions in Real Time
(Working Papers;2/2014, Working paper, 2014)We review several methods to define and forecast classical business cycle turning points in Norway. In the paper we compare the Bry - Boschan rule (BB) with a Markov Switching model (MS), using alternative vintages of ... -
Forecasting the Intraday Market Price of Money
(Working Papers;6/2011, Working paper, 2011)Market efficiency hypothesis suggests a zero level for the intraday interest rate. However, a liquidity crisis introduces frictions related to news, which can cause an upward jump of the intraday rate. This paper documents ... -
Foreign banks and the doom loop
(Working paper;2/2022, Working paper, 2022)This paper explores whether foreign banks stabilise or destabilise lending to the real economy in the presence of sovereign stress in the domestic economy and abroad. In this context, the presence of foreign intermediaries ... -
Foreign Exchange Market Structure, Players and Evolution
(Working Papers;10/2011, Working paper, 2011)Electronic trading has transformed foreign exchange markets over the past decade, and the pace of innovation only accelerates. This formerly opaque market is now fairly transparent and transaction costs are only a fraction ...